Articles | Volume 25, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 89–97, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-89-2018
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 89–97, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-89-2018

Research article 07 Feb 2018

Research article | 07 Feb 2018

Tipping point analysis of ocean acoustic noise

Valerie N. Livina et al.

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Cited articles

Cimatoribus, A. A., Drijfhout, S. S., Livina, V., and van der Schrier, G.: Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system, Clim. Past, 9, 323–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-323-2013, 2013.
CTBTO: Commission – The Secretariat of the CTBTO Preparatory. Looking Back Over 15 Years, Provisional Technical Secretariat of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, Vienna, 2013.
Dakos V., Carpenter, S., Brock, W., Ellison, A., Guttal, V., Ives, A., Kéfi, S., Livina, V., Seekell, D., van Nes, E., and Scheffer, M.: Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data, PLoS ONE, 7, e41010, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0041010, 2012.
De Livera, A., Hyndman, R., and Snyder, R.: Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 106, 1513–1527, 2011.
Ditlevsen, P., Kristensen, M., and Andersen, K.: The Recurrence Time of Dansgaard–Oeschger Events and Limits on the Possible Periodic Component, Jo. Climate, 18, 2594–2603, 2005.
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Short summary
We have applied tipping point analysis to a large record of ocean acoustic data to identify the main components of the acoustic dynamical system: long-term and seasonal trends, system states and fluctuations. We reconstructed a one-dimensional stochastic model equation to approximate the acoustic dynamical system. We have found a signature of El Niño events in the deep ocean acoustic data near the southwest Australian coast, which proves the investigative power of the tipping point methodology.