The tropical atmosphere is found to be more predictable than other regions in the world. In the present paper, however, we show that predictability is considerably limited when considering simplified versions of the atmospheric dynamics, contrasting with the common idea. These results open therefore new questions on the specific sources of higher predictability in the tropical atmosphere.

Climate models often simplify Earth’s atmosphere and oceans to make complex calculations possible. This study examines how such simplifications can unintentionally change the mathematical structures that determine large-scale climate variability and wave behavior. Using examples from global temperature balance and ocean–atmosphere waves, the paper shows that some common approximations may alter the set of physically allowed patterns of variability rather than simply simplifying them.