Research article

04 Nov 2025
Bottom–up approach for mitigating extreme events with limited intervention options: a case study with Lorenz 96 model
Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 457–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025, 2025
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03 Nov 2025
Boosting Ensembles for Statistics of Tails at Conditionally Optimal Advance Split Times
Justin Finkel and Paul A. O'Gorman
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.22310,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.22310, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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30 Oct 2025
On transversality and the characterization of finite time hyperbolic subspaces in chaotic attractors
Terence J. O'Kane and Courtney R. Quinn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5208,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5208, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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27 Oct 2025
Beyond Static Forecasts: A Dynamic Stress Gradient Framework for High-Resolution Aftershock Prediction and Mitigation
Boi-Yee Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3348,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3348, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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24 Oct 2025
Exploring the influence of spatio-temporal scale differences in coupled data assimilation
Lilian Garcia-Oliva, Alberto Carrassi, and François Counillon
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-439-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-439-2025, 2025
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20 Oct 2025
Quantifying variability in Lagrangian particle dispersal in ocean ensemble simulations: an information theory approach
Claudio M. Pierard, Siren Rühs, Laura Gómez-Navarro, Michael Charles Denes, Florian Meirer, Thierry Penduff, and Erik van Sebille
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 411–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-411-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-411-2025, 2025
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20 Oct 2025
Improving dynamical climate predictions with machine learning: insights from a twin experiment framework
Zikang He, Julien Brajard, Yiguo Wang, Xidong Wang, and Zheqi Shen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-397-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-397-2025, 2025
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20 Oct 2025
Assessing AMOC stability using a Bayesian nested time-dependent autoregressive model
Luc Hallali, Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 383–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-383-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-383-2025, 2025
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06 Oct 2025
The stochastic skeleton model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation with time-dependent observation-based forcing
Noémie Ehstand, Reik V. Donner, Cristóbal López, Marcelo Barreiro, and Emilio Hernández-García
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 367–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025, 2025
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02 Oct 2025
Bayesian data selection to quantify the value of data for landslide runout calibration
V Mithlesh Kumar, Anil Yildiz, and Julia Kowalski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4531,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4531, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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26 Sep 2025
Structural joint modeling of magnetotelluric data and Rayleigh wave dispersion curves using Pareto-based particle swarm optimization: An example to delineate the crustal structure of the southeastern part of the Biga Peninsula in western Anatolia
Ersin Büyük, Ekrem Zor, and Mustafa Cengiz Tapırdamaz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4698,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4698, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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24 Sep 2025
Long-window tandem variational data assimilation methods for chaotic climate models tested with the Lorenz 63 system
Philip David Kennedy, Abhirup Banerjee, Armin Köhl, and Detlef Stammer
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 353–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-353-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-353-2025, 2025
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15 Sep 2025
Inferring the role of IPO phase dependencies and extratropical internal variability on the tropics
Mark Collier, Dylan Harries, and Terence O'Kane
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3948,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3948, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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15 Sep 2025
Targeted Adaptive Chaos Control of Regimes and Eddy Strength in Two Lorenz Models
Moyan Liu, Qin Huang, and Upmanu Lall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3997,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3997, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 8 comments)
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11 Sep 2025
Simulation and data assimilation in an idealized coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice floe model with cloud effects
Changhong Mou, Samuel N. Stechmann, and Nan Chen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 329–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-329-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-329-2025, 2025
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10 Sep 2025
Exploring complexity measures for analysis of solar wind structures and streams
Venla Koikkalainen, Emilia Kilpua, Simon Good, and Adnane Osmane
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-309-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-309-2025, 2025
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08 Sep 2025
Ensemble-based model predictive control using data assimilation techniques
Kenta Kurosawa, Atsushi Okazaki, Fumitoshi Kawasaki, and Shunji Kotsuki
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 293–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-293-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-293-2025, 2025
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15 Aug 2025
Evaluation of the effectiveness of an intervention strategy in a control simulation experiment through comparison with model predictive control
Rikuto Nagai, Yang Bai, Masaki Ogura, Shunji Kotsuki, and Naoki Wakamiya
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 281–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-281-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-281-2025, 2025
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14 Aug 2025
Dynamic Mode Decomposition of Extreme Events
Maša Ann, Jörn Behrens, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3505,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3505, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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13 Aug 2025
Spatiotemporal variation in rainfall predictability in Serbia under a changing climate
Tatijana Stosic, Ivana Tošić, Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva, Vladimir Djurdjević, and Borko Stosic
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3766,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3766, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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04 Aug 2025
Exploring urban heat islands with a simple thermodynamic model
Mijeong Jeon, Kyeongjoo Park, Woosok Moon, Jae-Jin Kim, and Jong-Jin Baik
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3679,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3679, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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28 Jul 2025
A Theory of Earthquake Prediction
Jeen-Hwa Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3192,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3192, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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25 Jul 2025
On the hydrostatic approximation in rotating stratified flow
Achim Wirth
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 261–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-261-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-261-2025, 2025
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23 Jul 2025
Intermittency in fluid and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) turbulence analyzed through the prism of moment scaling predictions of multifractal models
Annick Pouquet, Raffaele Marino, Hélène Politano, Yannick Ponty, and Duane Rosenberg
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 243–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-243-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-243-2025, 2025
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14 Jul 2025
Ionospheric chaos in the solar quiet current due to sudden stratospheric warming events across the European and African sectors
Irewola Aaron Oludehinwa, Andrei Velichko, Olasunkanmi Isaac Olusola, Olawale Segun Bolaji, Norbert Marwan, Babalola Olasupo Ogunsua, Abdullahi Ndzi Njah, and Timothy Oluwaseyi Ologun
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 225–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-225-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-225-2025, 2025
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02 Jul 2025
MESMER-RCM: A Probabilistic Climate Emulator for Regional Warming Projections
Hao Pan, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3052,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3052, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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01 Jul 2025
Explaining the high skill of reservoir computing methods in El Niño prediction
Francesco Guardamagna, Claudia Wieners, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 201–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-201-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-201-2025, 2025
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27 Jun 2025
Rate-induced transitions and noise-driven resilience in vegetation pattern dynamics
Lilian Vanderveken and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-189-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-189-2025, 2025
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27 Jun 2025
Fractal Attractor of the Deep Convection Cycle in the Northwest Mediterranean Sea
Douglas Keller Jr.
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2860,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2860, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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25 Jun 2025
Impact of reduced non-Gaussianity on analysis and forecast accuracy by assimilating every-30-second radar observation with ensemble Kalman filter: idealized experiments of deep convection
Arata Amemiya and Takemasa Miyoshi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2543,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2543, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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24 Jun 2025
Localization in the mapping particle filter
Juan Martin Guerrieri, Manuel Arturo Pulido, Takemasa Miyoshi, Arata Amemiya, and Juan José Ruiz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2420,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2420, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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23 Jun 2025
Multilevel Monte Carlo methods for ensemble variational data assimilation
Mayeul Destouches, Paul Mycek, Selime Gürol, Anthony T. Weaver, Serge Gratton, and Ehouarn Simon
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 167–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-167-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-167-2025, 2025
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26 May 2025
Finite-size local dimension as a tool for extracting geometrical properties of attractors of dynamical systems
Martin Bonte and Stéphane Vannitsem
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 139–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-139-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-139-2025, 2025
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15 May 2025
Dynamic–statistic combined ensemble prediction and impact factors of China's summer precipitation
Xiaojuan Wang, Zihan Yang, Shuai Li, Qingquan Li, and Guolin Feng
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 117–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-117-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-117-2025, 2025
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