Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG

Research article

24 Mar 2026
Spatiotemporal variation in rainfall predictability in Serbia under a changing climate
Tatijana Stosic, Ivana Tošić, Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva, Vladimir Djurdjević, and Borko Stosic
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 157–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026, 2026
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19 Mar 2026
Beyond static forecasts: a dynamic stress gradient framework for high-resolution aftershock prediction and mitigation
Boi-Yee Liao
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 123–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-123-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-123-2026, 2026
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18 Mar 2026
Sensitivity of dynamical systems instantaneous dimension and its insights on sea surface temperature anomaly field over the tropical Pacific
Ming Shi, Huang Yu, Zuntao Fu, Hao Xue, Xiaolong Qiu, Xintong Hao, Xiaohan Zhang, Haiyang Yu, and Weiqi Xing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1376,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1376, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Mar 2026
Covariations between persistent synoptic features and Antarctic sea ice via unsupervised regression learning
Andrew Richard Axelsen, Terence John O'Kane, Courtney Quinn, and Andrew Bassom
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175408167.70542127/v1,https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175408167.70542127/v1, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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12 Mar 2026
Fractional Empirical Orthogonal Functions for Geophysical Fields with Anomalous Transport: Theory and Validation
Farrukh Chishtie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-753,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-753, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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11 Mar 2026
Nonlinear Quantitative Relationship Between the Duration and Occurrence Frequency of Droughts
Pengcheng Yan, Guolin Feng, Cailing Zhao, Ping Yang, Hao Wu, and Dongdong Zuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6401,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6401, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Mar 2026
Inferring the role of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase on tropical-extratropical teleconnection dependencies
Mark A. Collier, Dylan Harries, and Terence J. O'Kane
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 103–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-103-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-103-2026, 2026
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23 Feb 2026
Conditional updates of neural network weights for increased out of training performance
Jan Saynisch-Wagner and Saran Rajendran Sari
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.03653,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.03653, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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13 Feb 2026
Nonlinear resonance in the wave–shoreline system: mechanisms and global expression
Marius Aparicio, Julien Boucharel, Laurent Lacaze, and Rafael Almar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-541,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-541, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 5 comments)
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12 Feb 2026
MESMER-RCM: a probabilistic climate emulator for regional warming projections
Hao Pan, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 73–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026, 2026
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12 Feb 2026
Dynamic mode decomposition of extreme events
Maša Ann, Jörn Behrens, and Jana Sillmann
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 85–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-85-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-85-2026, 2026
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11 Feb 2026
On transversality and the characterization of finite time hyperbolic subspaces in chaotic attractors
Terence J. O'Kane and Courtney R. Quinn
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 51–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-51-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-51-2026, 2026
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10 Feb 2026
A Simple Dynamical System for Representing Climate Tipping Points with Hysteresis
Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Joseph Clarke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-550,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-550, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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03 Feb 2026
Ensemble Kalman–Guided Model Predictive Path Integral Control for Spatially Localized Suppression of Extremes in Chaotic Geophysical Flows
Haru Kuroki, Kazumune Hashimoto, Yuki Uehara, Yohei Sawada, Duc Le, and Masashi Minamide
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-419,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-419, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 4 comments)
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29 Jan 2026
Elucidating the performance of data assimilation neural networks for chaotic dynamics
Marc Bocquet, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Sibo Cheng, and Alban Farchi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-245,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-245, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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26 Jan 2026
Localization in the mapping particle filter
Juan M. Guerrieri, Manuel Pulido, Takemasa Miyoshi, Arata Amemiya, and Juan J. Ruiz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 33–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-33-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-33-2026, 2026
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22 Jan 2026
Sandy beaches' chaos: shoreline-sandbar coupling inferred from observational time series
Marius Aparicio, Sylvain Mangiarotti, Salomé Frugier, Laurent Lacaze, Marcan Graffin, and Rafael Almar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-154,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-154, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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08 Jan 2026
Contrasting different noise models for representing westerly wind bursts in a recharge oscillator model of ENSO
Georg A. Gottwald, Eli Tziperman, and Alexey Fedorov
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.22710,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.22710, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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06 Jan 2026
Exploring urban heat islands with a simple thermodynamic model
Mijeong Jeon, Kyeongjoo Park, Woosok Moon, Jae-Jin Kim, and Jong-Jin Baik
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-17-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-17-2026, 2026
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05 Jan 2026
Impact of reduced non-Gaussianity on analysis and forecast accuracy by assimilating every-30 s radar observation with ensemble Kalman filter: idealized experiments of deep convection
Arata Amemiya and Takemasa Miyoshi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-1-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-1-2026, 2026
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02 Jan 2026
Physically Segmented Plasma Parameterization of Titan’s Ionosphere for Nonlinear Wave Dynamics
Hamid Reza Pakzad and Kurosh Javidan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5457,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5457, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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30 Dec 2025
Towards a parametric Kalman filter for operational wildfire plume assimilation: Formulation of the forecast step
Annika Vogel, Richard Ménard, James Abu, and Jack Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6386,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6386, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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27 Dec 2025
The advantages of data assimilation in parametric space rather than classic grid space
Solène Dealbera, Stéphane Raynaud, Carlos Granero Belinchon, Brahim Boussidi, Clément Le Goff, and Pierre Tandeo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5907,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5907, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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18 Dec 2025
Quantitative Comparison of Causal Inference Methods for Climate Tipping Points
Niki Lohmann, David Strahl, Annika Högner, Willem Huiskamp, Matthias Boehm, and Nico Wunderling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6258,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6258, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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05 Dec 2025
Nonlinear wavefield characteristics of seismic translation and rotation in small-strain deformation from moment tensor simulations
Wei Li, Yun Wang, Chang Chen, and Lixia Sun
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 489–501, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-489-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-489-2025, 2025
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24 Nov 2025
On process-oriented conditional targeted covariance inflation (TCI) for 3D-volume radar data assimilation
Klaus Vobig, Roland Potthast, and Klaus Stephan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 471–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-471-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-471-2025, 2025
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21 Nov 2025
A tempered fractional Hawkes framework for finite-memory drought dynamics
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5401,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5401, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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12 Nov 2025
Quantifying the minimum ensemble size for asymptotic accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter using the degrees of instability
Kota Takeda and Takemasa Miyoshi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5144,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5144, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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04 Nov 2025
Bottom–up approach for mitigating extreme events with limited intervention options: a case study with Lorenz 96 model
Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 457–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025, 2025
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03 Nov 2025
Boosting Ensembles for Statistics of Tails at Conditionally Optimal Advance Split Times
Justin Finkel and Paul A. O'Gorman
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.22310,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.22310, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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24 Oct 2025
Exploring the influence of spatio-temporal scale differences in coupled data assimilation
Lilian Garcia-Oliva, Alberto Carrassi, and François Counillon
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-439-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-439-2025, 2025
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20 Oct 2025
Quantifying variability in Lagrangian particle dispersal in ocean ensemble simulations: an information theory approach
Claudio M. Pierard, Siren Rühs, Laura Gómez-Navarro, Michael Charles Denes, Florian Meirer, Thierry Penduff, and Erik van Sebille
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 411–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-411-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-411-2025, 2025
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20 Oct 2025
Improving dynamical climate predictions with machine learning: insights from a twin experiment framework
Zikang He, Julien Brajard, Yiguo Wang, Xidong Wang, and Zheqi Shen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-397-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-397-2025, 2025
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20 Oct 2025
Assessing AMOC stability using a Bayesian nested time-dependent autoregressive model
Luc Hallali, Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 383–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-383-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-383-2025, 2025
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06 Oct 2025
The stochastic skeleton model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation with time-dependent observation-based forcing
Noémie Ehstand, Reik V. Donner, Cristóbal López, Marcelo Barreiro, and Emilio Hernández-García
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 367–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025, 2025
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02 Oct 2025
Bayesian data selection to quantify the value of data for landslide runout calibration
V Mithlesh Kumar, Anil Yildiz, and Julia Kowalski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4531,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4531, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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26 Sep 2025
Structural joint modeling of magnetotelluric data and Rayleigh wave dispersion curves using Pareto-based particle swarm optimization: An example to delineate the crustal structure of the southeastern part of the Biga Peninsula in western Anatolia
Ersin Büyük, Ekrem Zor, and Mustafa Cengiz Tapırdamaz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4698,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4698, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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