Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG

Research article

23 Jun 2026
Aggregating signals of Earth system dynamics across space, time, models, and variables
Kobe De Maeyer, Jakob Harteg, Jonathan F. Donges, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Sina Loriani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3389,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3389, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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23 Jun 2026
Encoding-dependent verdicts and H_1 miscalibration in ensemble persistent homology of cyclone trajectories
Rongzhen Dai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2975,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2975, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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19 Jun 2026
Earthquake Scaling Equations Under Small Strain, Steady Moment Release-Rate Conditions in Southern Andes from 2015 to 2017
Patricio A. Toledo, Cristián Siegel, Benoit Derode, Raúl Madariaga, and Jaime Campos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3399,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3399, 2026
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19 Jun 2026
Quantitative comparison of causal inference methods for climate tipping points
Niki Lohmann, David Strahl, Annika Högner, Willem Huiskamp, Matthias Boehm, and Nico Wunderling
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 313–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026, 2026
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17 Jun 2026
From Fragmentation to Spanning: Connectivity Regime Transitions in Equal-Probability Geohazard Fields
Şahin Çağlar Tuna
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2387,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2387, 2026
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11 Jun 2026
Estimating cross-correlation parameters between forecast and observation errors within the ensemble transform Kalman filter with cross correlation (ETKFCC)
Yuki Kobayashi, Shun Ohishi, and Takemasa Miyoshi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2653,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2653, 2026
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11 Jun 2026
Correlated Geometric Scaling of Tornado Damage Paths in the SPC Database (1950–2024)
Waleed Mouhali
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2829,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2829, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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11 Jun 2026
Characterizing inertial and diabatic energy transfers in tropical cyclones
Tom Dörffel, Natalia Mikula, Lisa Schielicke, Theresa Kiszler, Davide Faranda, Berengere Dubrulle, and Nikki Vercauteren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2918,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2918, 2026
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08 Jun 2026
Nonlinear quantitative relationship between the duration and occurrence frequency of droughts
Pengcheng Yan, Guolin Feng, Cailing Zhao, Ping Yang, Hao Wu, and Dongdong Zuo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 303–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-303-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-303-2026, 2026
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02 Jun 2026
Structural joint modeling of magnetotelluric data and Rayleigh wave dispersion curves using Pareto-based particle swarm optimization: an example to delineate the crustal structure of the southeastern part of the Biga Peninsula in western Anatolia
Ersin Büyük, Ekrem Zor, and Mustafa Cengiz Tapırdamaz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 267–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-267-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-267-2026, 2026
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02 Jun 2026
A Continuous-Time Ensemble Kalman–Bucy Smoother for Causal Inference and Model Discovery
Zhang Jiang, Marios Andreou, Sebastian Reich, and Nan Chen
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.25157,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.25157, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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28 May 2026
Boosting ensembles for statistics of tails at conditionally optimal advance split times
Justin Finkel and Paul A. O'Gorman
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 233–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-233-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-233-2026, 2026
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27 May 2026
Material coherence and life cycle of a wildfire-generated stratospheric vortex
Fernando Andrade-Canto and Francisco J. Beron-Vera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2375,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2375, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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22 May 2026
Stationary Solutions and Oscillatory Dynamics in a Mathematical Model of a Saturated Moist Atmosphere
Dalila Remaoun Bourega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2648,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2648, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 4 comments)
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08 May 2026
Memory-driven cascading tipping dynamics in the Earth system. A regime-switching Volterra framework calibrated with CMIP6 ensembles
Mauricio Herrera-Marín, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, and Diego Rivera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2260,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2260, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 May 2026
Multi-dimensional, Multi-Constraint Seismic Inversion of Acoustic Impedance Using Fuzzy Clustering Concepts
Saber Jahanjooy, Hosein Hashemi, and Majid Bagheri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1391,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1391, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 12 comments)
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21 Apr 2026
Sandy beaches' chaos: shoreline-sandbar coupling inferred from observational time series
Marius Aparicio, Sylvain Mangiarotti, Salomé Frugier, Laurent Lacaze, Marcan Graffin, and Rafael Almar
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 197–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-197-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-197-2026, 2026
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20 Apr 2026
Bayesian inference based on algorithms: MH, HMC, MALA and Lip-MALA for prestack seismic inversion
Richard Perez-Roa, Saba Infante, Gabriel Barragan, and Raul Manzanilla
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 173–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-173-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-173-2026, 2026
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10 Apr 2026
Predicting the distance of the AMOC to its tipping point using CNNs
Francesco Guardamagna, Sacha Sinet, and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1872,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1872, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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24 Mar 2026
Spatiotemporal variation in rainfall predictability in Serbia under a changing climate
Tatijana Stosic, Ivana Tošić, Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva, Vladimir Djurdjević, and Borko Stosic
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 157–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026, 2026
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19 Mar 2026
Beyond static forecasts: a dynamic stress gradient framework for high-resolution aftershock prediction and mitigation
Boi-Yee Liao
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 123–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-123-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-123-2026, 2026
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18 Mar 2026
Sensitivity of dynamical systems instantaneous dimension and its insights on sea surface temperature anomaly field over the tropical Pacific
Ming Shi, Huang Yu, Zuntao Fu, Hao Xue, Xiaolong Qiu, Xintong Hao, Xiaohan Zhang, Haiyang Yu, and Weiqi Xing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1376,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1376, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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17 Mar 2026
Covariations between persistent synoptic features and Antarctic sea ice via unsupervised regression learning
Andrew Richard Axelsen, Terence John O'Kane, Courtney Quinn, and Andrew Bassom
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175408167.70542127/v1,https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175408167.70542127/v1, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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12 Mar 2026
Fractional Empirical Orthogonal Functions for Geophysical Fields with Anomalous Transport: Theory and Validation
Farrukh Chishtie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-753,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-753, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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04 Mar 2026
Inferring the role of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase on tropical-extratropical teleconnection dependencies
Mark A. Collier, Dylan Harries, and Terence J. O'Kane
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 103–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-103-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-103-2026, 2026
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23 Feb 2026
Conditional updates of neural network weights for increased out of training performance
Jan Saynisch-Wagner and Saran Rajendran Sari
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.03653,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.03653, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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13 Feb 2026
Nonlinear resonance in the wave–shoreline system: mechanisms and global expression
Marius Aparicio, Julien Boucharel, Laurent Lacaze, and Rafael Almar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-541,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-541, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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12 Feb 2026
Dynamic mode decomposition of extreme events
Maša Ann, Jörn Behrens, and Jana Sillmann
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 85–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-85-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-85-2026, 2026
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12 Feb 2026
MESMER-RCM: a probabilistic climate emulator for regional warming projections
Hao Pan, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 73–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-73-2026, 2026
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11 Feb 2026
On transversality and the characterization of finite time hyperbolic subspaces in chaotic attractors
Terence J. O'Kane and Courtney R. Quinn
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 51–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-51-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-51-2026, 2026
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10 Feb 2026
A Simple Dynamical System for Representing Climate Tipping Points with Hysteresis
Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Joseph Clarke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-550,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-550, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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03 Feb 2026
Ensemble Kalman–Guided Model Predictive Path Integral Control for Spatially Localized Suppression of Extremes in Chaotic Geophysical Flows
Haru Kuroki, Kazumune Hashimoto, Yuki Uehara, Yohei Sawada, Duc Le, and Masashi Minamide
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-419,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-419, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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29 Jan 2026
Elucidating the performance of data assimilation neural networks for chaotic dynamics
Marc Bocquet, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Sibo Cheng, and Alban Farchi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-245,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-245, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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26 Jan 2026
Localization in the mapping particle filter
Juan M. Guerrieri, Manuel Pulido, Takemasa Miyoshi, Arata Amemiya, and Juan J. Ruiz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 33–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-33-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-33-2026, 2026
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08 Jan 2026
Contrasting different noise models for representing westerly wind bursts in a recharge oscillator model of ENSO
Georg A. Gottwald, Eli Tziperman, and Alexey Fedorov
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.22710,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.22710, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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06 Jan 2026
Exploring urban heat islands with a simple thermodynamic model
Mijeong Jeon, Kyeongjoo Park, Woosok Moon, Jae-Jin Kim, and Jong-Jin Baik
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-17-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-17-2026, 2026
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05 Jan 2026
Impact of reduced non-Gaussianity on analysis and forecast accuracy by assimilating every-30 s radar observation with ensemble Kalman filter: idealized experiments of deep convection
Arata Amemiya and Takemasa Miyoshi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-1-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-1-2026, 2026
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02 Jan 2026
Physically Segmented Plasma Parameterization of Titan’s Ionosphere for Nonlinear Wave Dynamics
Hamid Reza Pakzad and Kurosh Javidan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5457,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5457, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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30 Dec 2025
Towards a parametric Kalman filter for operational wildfire plume assimilation: Formulation of the forecast step
Annika Vogel, Richard Ménard, James Abu, and Jack Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6386,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6386, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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