Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG

Research article

21 Sep 2026
New and existing covariance estimation techniques for ensemble data assimilation
Shay Gilpin, Matthias Morzfeld, and Kevin K. Lin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5032,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5032, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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21 Sep 2026
Data assimilation of coherent structures in parametric and gridded spaces: an idealized ocean eddy study
Solène Dealbera, Stéphane Raynaud, Carlos Granero Belinchon, Brahim Boussidi, Clément Le Goff, and Pierre Tandeo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 489–501, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-489-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-489-2026, 2026
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14 Sep 2026
The drag-law for turbulent air-sea interaction is locally linear
Achim Wirth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5130,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5130, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 Sep 2026
Terminal-Guided Back-and-Forth Nudging: Time-Reversed Smoke-Plume Reconstruction with Fourier Neural-Operator Acceleration
Petar Glisovic, Alexander Braun, and Alessandro Forte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4624,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4624, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Sep 2026
Ensemble Kalman-guided model predictive path integral control for spatially localized suppression of extremes in chaotic geophysical flows
Haru Kuroki, Kazumune Hashimoto, Yuki Uehara, Yohei Sawada, Duc Le, and Masashi Minamide
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 473–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-473-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-473-2026, 2026
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27 Aug 2026
Covariations between persistent synoptic features and record low Antarctic sea ice events via unsupervised regression learning
Andrew R. Axelsen, Terence J. O'Kane, Courtney R. Quinn, and Andrew P. Bassom
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 455–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-455-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-455-2026, 2026
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25 Aug 2026
Bayesian data selection to quantify the value of data for landslide runout calibration
V. Mithlesh Kumar, Anil Yildiz, and Julia Kowalski
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 425–453, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-425-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-425-2026, 2026
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18 Aug 2026
A monthly-climatological parameterization of the surface leading-crestline morphology for internal solitary waves in the northeastern South China Sea
Yanze Yin, Yankun Gong, and Xu Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4336,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4336, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Aug 2026
A fractional von Kármán tornado model: anomalous vertical transport with a cascade-fixed order, and an advection-controlled far-field law
Farrukh A. Chishtie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4368,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4368, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 13 comments)
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11 Aug 2026
Elucidating the performance of data assimilation neural networks for chaotic dynamics
Marc Bocquet, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Sibo Cheng, and Alban Farchi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 401–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-401-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-401-2026, 2026
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06 Aug 2026
A simple dynamical system for representing climate tipping points with hysteresis
Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Joseph Clarke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 385–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026, 2026
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05 Aug 2026
Fractal Rupture Geometry and Nonlinear Stress-Drop Scaling in Earthquake Source Parameters
Antonino D'Alessandro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3994,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3994, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Aug 2026
Unsupervised neural network for dynamics control under chaotic regime
Roberto Neves Salles, César Magno Leite de Oliveira Jr., Yoshitaka Saiki, and Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3775,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3775, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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24 Jul 2026
Delayed State Evolution in Rate-and-State Earthquake Nucleation: Amplification, Localization, and Scaling
Srđan Kostić and Nebojša Vasović
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4365,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4365, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 4 comments)
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22 Jul 2026
Quantifying the effects of observational time resolution on marine heatwave detection
Harshal Chavan, François G. Schmitt, and Urania Christaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4239,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4239, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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21 Jul 2026
A Hierarchical Fractional N-body Framework for Coulomb Stress Evolution in Fault Networks: Exact Analytical Solutions and Falsifiable Seismicity Scaling Laws
Farrukh A. Chishtie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3498,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3498, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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21 Jul 2026
Improved Method for Merging Particle Filter Using Random Merging Coefficients
Naoki Hiramoto, Genta Ueno, and Daisuke Murakami
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4073,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4073, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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20 Jul 2026
An improved noise model for representing westerly wind bursts in the recharge oscillator model of ENSO
Georg A. Gottwald, Eli Tziperman, and Alexey Fedorov
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 373–383, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-373-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-373-2026, 2026
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20 Jul 2026
The fractional Rothermel model: Mittag-Leffler kinetics of wildfire front propagation from a stochastic hierarchical parcel cascade, with application to heading fire collapse
Farrukh Chishtie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3823,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3823, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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17 Jul 2026
Observing Phase Transitions in Extreme Rainfall Events: Insights from Sub-Minute Observations and Universal Multifractal Analysis
Ching-Chun Chou, Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, and Li-Pen Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3860,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3860, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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14 Jul 2026
Formulation of parametric uncertainty forecasts towards operational wildfire smoke assimilation
Annika Vogel, Richard Ménard, James Abu, and Jack Chen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 347–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-347-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-347-2026, 2026
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06 Jul 2026
Noise-scaled accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter with an instability-based minimum ensemble size
Kota Takeda and Takemasa Miyoshi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 335–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-335-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-335-2026, 2026
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01 Jul 2026
Stochastic Collection Equation: Invariant Evolution of the Cloud Droplet–Size Distribution
Jun-Ichi Yano, Marta Waclawczyk, and Maarten Ambaum
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3530,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3530, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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23 Jun 2026
Aggregating signals of Earth system dynamics across space, time, models, and variables
Kobe De Maeyer, Jakob Harteg, Jonathan F. Donges, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Sina Loriani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3389,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3389, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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23 Jun 2026
Encoding-dependent verdicts and H_1 miscalibration in ensemble persistent homology of cyclone trajectories
Rongzhen Dai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2975,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2975, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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19 Jun 2026
Earthquake Scaling Equations Under Small Strain, Steady Moment Release-Rate Conditions in Southern Andes from 2015 to 2017
Patricio A. Toledo, Cristián Siegel, Benoit Derode, Raúl Madariaga, and Jaime Campos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3399,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3399, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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19 Jun 2026
Quantitative comparison of causal inference methods for climate tipping points
Niki Lohmann, David Strahl, Annika Högner, Willem Huiskamp, Matthias Boehm, and Nico Wunderling
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 313–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026, 2026
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17 Jun 2026
From Fragmentation to Spanning: Connectivity Regime Transitions in Equal-Probability Geohazard Fields
Şahin Çağlar Tuna
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2387,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2387, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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11 Jun 2026
Characterizing inertial and diabatic energy transfers in tropical cyclones
Tom Dörffel, Natalia Mikula, Lisa Schielicke, Theresa Kiszler, Davide Faranda, Berengere Dubrulle, and Nikki Vercauteren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2918,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2918, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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11 Jun 2026
Estimating cross-correlation parameters between forecast and observation errors within the ensemble transform Kalman filter with cross correlation (ETKFCC)
Yuki Kobayashi, Shun Ohishi, and Takemasa Miyoshi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2653,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2653, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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08 Jun 2026
Nonlinear quantitative relationship between the duration and occurrence frequency of droughts
Pengcheng Yan, Guolin Feng, Cailing Zhao, Ping Yang, Hao Wu, and Dongdong Zuo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 303–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-303-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-303-2026, 2026
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02 Jun 2026
A Continuous-Time Ensemble Kalman–Bucy Smoother for Causal Inference and Model Discovery
Zhang Jiang, Marios Andreou, Sebastian Reich, and Nan Chen
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.25157,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.25157, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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02 Jun 2026
Structural joint modeling of magnetotelluric data and Rayleigh wave dispersion curves using Pareto-based particle swarm optimization: an example to delineate the crustal structure of the southeastern part of the Biga Peninsula in western Anatolia
Ersin Büyük, Ekrem Zor, and Mustafa Cengiz Tapırdamaz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 267–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-267-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-267-2026, 2026
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28 May 2026
Boosting ensembles for statistics of tails at conditionally optimal advance split times
Justin Finkel and Paul A. O'Gorman
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 233–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-233-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-233-2026, 2026
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22 May 2026
Stationary Solutions and Oscillatory Dynamics in a Mathematical Model of a Saturated Moist Atmosphere
Dalila Remaoun Bourega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2648,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2648, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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08 May 2026
Multi-dimensional, Multi-Constraint Seismic Inversion of Acoustic Impedance Using Fuzzy Clustering Concepts
Saber Jahanjooy, Hosein Hashemi, and Majid Bagheri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1391,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1391, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 12 comments)
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21 Apr 2026
Sandy beaches' chaos: shoreline-sandbar coupling inferred from observational time series
Marius Aparicio, Sylvain Mangiarotti, Salomé Frugier, Laurent Lacaze, Marcan Graffin, and Rafael Almar
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 197–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-197-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-197-2026, 2026
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20 Apr 2026
Bayesian inference based on algorithms: MH, HMC, MALA and Lip-MALA for prestack seismic inversion
Richard Perez-Roa, Saba Infante, Gabriel Barragan, and Raul Manzanilla
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 173–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-173-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-173-2026, 2026
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10 Apr 2026
Predicting the distance of the AMOC to its tipping point using CNNs
Francesco Guardamagna, Sacha Sinet, and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1872,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1872, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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