Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG

Preprints

The following lists only preprints without a corresponding final revised paper.
04 Aug 2026
Unsupervised neural network for dynamics control under chaotic regime
Roberto Neves Salles, César Magno Leite de Oliveira Jr., Yoshitaka Saiki, and Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3775, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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24 Jul 2026
Delayed State Evolution in Rate-and-State Earthquake Nucleation: Amplification, Localization, and Scaling
Srđan Kostić and Nebojša Vasović
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4365, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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22 Jul 2026
Quantifying the effects of observational time resolution on marine heatwave detection
Harshal Chavan, François G. Schmitt, and Urania Christaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4239, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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21 Jul 2026
Improved Method for Merging Particle Filter Using Random Merging Coefficients
Naoki Hiramoto, Genta Ueno, and Daisuke Murakami
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4073, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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21 Jul 2026
A Hierarchical Fractional N-body Framework for Coulomb Stress Evolution in Fault Networks: Exact Analytical Solutions and Falsifiable Seismicity Scaling Laws
Farrukh A. Chishtie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3498, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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20 Jul 2026
The fractional Rothermel model: Mittag-Leffler kinetics of wildfire front propagation from a stochastic hierarchical parcel cascade, with application to heading fire collapse
Farrukh Chishtie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3823, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Jul 2026
Observing Phase Transitions in Extreme Rainfall Events: Insights from Sub-Minute Observations and Universal Multifractal Analysis
Ching-Chun Chou, Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, and Li-Pen Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3860, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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01 Jul 2026
Stochastic Collection Equation: Invariant Evolution of the Cloud Droplet–Size Distribution
Jun-Ichi Yano, Marta Waclawczyk, and Maarten Ambaum
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3530, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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30 Jun 2026
Emergence of chaos in the tropical atmosphere: Study of the weak temperature gradient system
Stéphane Vannitsem and Jonathan Demaeyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3631, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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26 Jun 2026
Review article: The future of the physics-based NWP methodology: a critical review on applications of catastrophe theory to the atmospheric science
Chongjian Liu, Jinfang Yin, Xiaomin Wei, Xiaogong Sun, and Guofu Zhu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2981, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 4 comments)
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23 Jun 2026
Aggregating signals of Earth system dynamics across space, time, models, and variables
Kobe De Maeyer, Jakob Harteg, Jonathan F. Donges, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Sina Loriani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3389, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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23 Jun 2026
Encoding-dependent verdicts and H_1 miscalibration in ensemble persistent homology of cyclone trajectories
Rongzhen Dai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2975, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 6 comments)
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19 Jun 2026
Earthquake Scaling Equations Under Small Strain, Steady Moment Release-Rate Conditions in Southern Andes from 2015 to 2017
Patricio A. Toledo, Cristián Siegel, Benoit Derode, Raúl Madariaga, and Jaime Campos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3399, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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17 Jun 2026
From Fragmentation to Spanning: Connectivity Regime Transitions in Equal-Probability Geohazard Fields
Şahin Çağlar Tuna
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2387, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Jun 2026
Spectral Neutrality of Climate Reductions: An Operator Perspective
Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3085, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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11 Jun 2026
Characterizing inertial and diabatic energy transfers in tropical cyclones
Tom Dörffel, Natalia Mikula, Lisa Schielicke, Theresa Kiszler, Davide Faranda, Berengere Dubrulle, and Nikki Vercauteren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2918, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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11 Jun 2026
Correlated Geometric Scaling of Tornado Damage Paths in the SPC Database (1950–2024)
Waleed Mouhali
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2829, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 13 comments)
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11 Jun 2026
Estimating cross-correlation parameters between forecast and observation errors within the ensemble transform Kalman filter with cross correlation (ETKFCC)
Yuki Kobayashi, Shun Ohishi, and Takemasa Miyoshi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2653, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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02 Jun 2026
A Continuous-Time Ensemble Kalman–Bucy Smoother for Causal Inference and Model Discovery
Zhang Jiang, Marios Andreou, Sebastian Reich, and Nan Chen
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.25157, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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27 May 2026
Material coherence and life cycle of a wildfire-generated stratospheric vortex
Fernando Andrade-Canto and Francisco J. Beron-Vera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2375, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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22 May 2026
Stationary Solutions and Oscillatory Dynamics in a Mathematical Model of a Saturated Moist Atmosphere
Dalila Remaoun Bourega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2648, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 4 comments)
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08 May 2026
Memory-driven cascading tipping dynamics in the Earth system. A regime-switching Volterra framework calibrated with CMIP6 ensembles
Mauricio Herrera-Marín, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, and Diego Rivera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2260, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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08 May 2026
Multi-dimensional, Multi-Constraint Seismic Inversion of Acoustic Impedance Using Fuzzy Clustering Concepts
Saber Jahanjooy, Hosein Hashemi, and Majid Bagheri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1391, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 12 comments)
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10 Apr 2026
Predicting the distance of the AMOC to its tipping point using CNNs
Francesco Guardamagna, Sacha Sinet, and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1872, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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18 Mar 2026
Sensitivity of dynamical systems instantaneous dimension and its insights on sea surface temperature anomaly field over the tropical Pacific
Ming Shi, Huang Yu, Zuntao Fu, Hao Xue, Xiaolong Qiu, Xintong Hao, Xiaohan Zhang, Haiyang Yu, and Weiqi Xing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1376, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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17 Mar 2026
Covariations between persistent synoptic features and Antarctic sea ice via unsupervised regression learning
Andrew Richard Axelsen, Terence John O'Kane, Courtney Quinn, and Andrew Bassom
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175408167.70542127/v1, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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12 Mar 2026
Fractional Empirical Orthogonal Functions for Geophysical Fields with Anomalous Transport: Theory and Validation
Farrukh Chishtie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-753, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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23 Feb 2026
Conditional updates of neural network weights for increased out of training performance
Jan Saynisch-Wagner and Saran Rajendran Sari
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.03653, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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13 Feb 2026
Nonlinear resonance in the wave–shoreline system: mechanisms and global expression
Marius Aparicio, Julien Boucharel, Laurent Lacaze, and Rafael Almar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-541, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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10 Feb 2026
A Simple Dynamical System for Representing Climate Tipping Points with Hysteresis
Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Joseph Clarke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-550, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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03 Feb 2026
Ensemble Kalman–Guided Model Predictive Path Integral Control for Spatially Localized Suppression of Extremes in Chaotic Geophysical Flows
Haru Kuroki, Kazumune Hashimoto, Yuki Uehara, Yohei Sawada, Duc Le, and Masashi Minamide
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-419, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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29 Jan 2026
Elucidating the performance of data assimilation neural networks for chaotic dynamics
Marc Bocquet, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Sibo Cheng, and Alban Farchi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-245, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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02 Jan 2026
Physically Segmented Plasma Parameterization of Titan’s Ionosphere for Nonlinear Wave Dynamics
Hamid Reza Pakzad and Kurosh Javidan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5457, 2026
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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27 Dec 2025
The advantages of data assimilation in parametric space rather than classic grid space
Solène Dealbera, Stéphane Raynaud, Carlos Granero Belinchon, Brahim Boussidi, Clément Le Goff, and Pierre Tandeo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5907, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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28 Oct 2025
A deterministic cascade model to infer intermittency stochastics of Navier-Stokes
Xin Li, Daniel Schertzer, Yelva Roustan, and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4895, 2025
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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02 Oct 2025
Bayesian data selection to quantify the value of data for landslide runout calibration
V Mithlesh Kumar, Anil Yildiz, and Julia Kowalski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4531, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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