O. Martínez-Alvarado
Numerical climate models constitute the best available tools to tackle the problem of climate prediction. Two assumptions lie at the heart of their suitability: (1) a climate attractor exists, and (2) the numerical climate model's attractor lies on the actual climate attractor, or at least on the projection of the climate attractor on the model's phase space. In this contribution, the Lorenz '63 system is used both as a prototype system and as an imperfect model to investigate the implications of the second assumption. By comparing results drawn from the Lorenz '63 system and from numerical weather and climate models, the implications of using imperfect models for the prediction of weather and climate are discussed. It is shown that the imperfect model's orbit and the system's orbit are essentially different, purely due to model error and not to sensitivity to initial conditions. Furthermore, if a model is a perfect model, then the attractor, reconstructed by sampling a collection of initialised model orbits (forecast orbits), will be invariant to forecast lead time. This conclusion provides an alternative method for the assessment of climate models.
Received: 05 Feb 2014 – Discussion started: 07 Mar 2014
Publisher's note : Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
O. Martínez-Alvarado
Viewed
Total article views: 1,929 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML
PDF
XML
Total
BibTeX
EndNote
1,314
488
127
1,929
92
106
HTML: 1,314
PDF: 488
XML: 127
Total: 1,929
BibTeX: 92
EndNote: 106
Views and downloads (calculated since 07 Mar 2014)
Month
HTML
PDF
XML
Total
Mar 2014
101
82
4
187
Apr 2014
42
35
4
81
May 2014
33
12
2
47
Jun 2014
18
6
0
24
Jul 2014
14
30
3
47
Aug 2014
4
6
0
10
Sep 2014
6
2
3
11
Oct 2014
7
2
0
9
Nov 2014
5
3
0
8
Dec 2014
12
11
2
25
Jan 2015
8
12
2
22
Feb 2015
3
2
0
5
Mar 2015
6
5
2
13
Apr 2015
5
3
0
8
May 2015
2
3
0
5
Jun 2015
16
2
2
20
Jul 2015
11
9
0
20
Aug 2015
7
4
3
14
Sep 2015
4
0
4
Oct 2015
13
3
2
18
Nov 2015
10
5
3
18
Dec 2015
1
5
1
7
Jan 2016
5
3
0
8
Feb 2016
5
1
0
6
Mar 2016
5
2
1
8
Apr 2016
2
3
0
5
May 2016
7
1
0
8
Jun 2016
4
1
0
5
Jul 2016
5
5
2
12
Aug 2016
3
1
1
5
Sep 2016
5
2
0
7
Oct 2016
4
1
0
5
Nov 2016
1
1
1
3
Dec 2016
3
2
1
6
Jan 2017
9
1
1
11
Feb 2017
3
0
3
Mar 2017
17
5
4
26
Apr 2017
20
13
2
35
May 2017
23
2
10
35
Jun 2017
21
3
5
29
Jul 2017
5
1
0
6
Aug 2017
6
5
2
13
Sep 2017
3
3
0
6
Oct 2017
6
2
0
8
Nov 2017
7
1
0
8
Dec 2017
8
1
2
11
Jan 2018
18
1
0
19
Feb 2018
22
1
5
28
Mar 2018
13
2
1
16
Apr 2018
10
2
2
14
May 2018
6
1
0
7
Jun 2018
6
2
0
8
Jul 2018
9
1
1
11
Aug 2018
7
3
1
11
Sep 2018
6
4
0
10
Oct 2018
10
8
0
18
Nov 2018
9
5
2
16
Dec 2018
9
6
2
17
Jan 2019
10
5
0
15
Feb 2019
3
2
0
5
Mar 2019
8
3
0
11
Apr 2019
13
5
0
18
May 2019
5
3
1
9
Jun 2019
5
3
2
10
Jul 2019
15
5
0
20
Aug 2019
8
3
1
12
Sep 2019
9
4
1
14
Oct 2019
7
2
0
9
Nov 2019
9
3
1
13
Dec 2019
11
5
1
17
Jan 2020
7
2
0
9
Feb 2020
9
1
0
10
Mar 2020
4
4
0
8
Apr 2020
4
1
5
May 2020
10
3
0
13
Jun 2020
7
1
0
8
Jul 2020
9
1
4
14
Aug 2020
10
1
3
14
Sep 2020
13
3
0
16
Oct 2020
5
5
1
11
Nov 2020
6
3
1
10
Dec 2020
12
5
0
17
Jan 2021
10
4
0
14
Feb 2021
6
2
0
8
Mar 2021
5
3
0
8
Apr 2021
13
5
0
18
May 2021
13
1
14
Jun 2021
8
0
8
Jul 2021
6
1
1
8
Aug 2021
8
1
1
10
Sep 2021
5
1
1
7
Oct 2021
16
1
0
17
Nov 2021
17
7
3
27
Dec 2021
17
2
1
20
Jan 2022
10
3
0
13
Feb 2022
14
0
14
Mar 2022
8
2
2
12
Apr 2022
5
3
0
8
May 2022
11
0
11
Jun 2022
11
1
1
13
Jul 2022
2
1
0
3
Aug 2022
11
0
11
Sep 2022
17
0
17
Oct 2022
23
1
0
24
Nov 2022
23
1
0
24
Dec 2022
6
0
6
Jan 2023
2
4
0
6
Feb 2023
11
3
0
14
Mar 2023
10
2
0
12
Apr 2023
5
0
5
May 2023
3
4
0
7
Jun 2023
6
1
7
Jul 2023
7
1
0
8
Aug 2023
6
2
0
8
Sep 2023
12
4
2
18
Oct 2023
20
2
1
23
Nov 2023
15
0
15
Dec 2023
16
0
16
Jan 2024
9
1
1
11
Feb 2024
8
1
0
9
Mar 2024
16
1
17
Apr 2024
13
3
4
20
May 2024
5
2
2
9
Jun 2024
13
1
2
16
Jul 2024
12
1
2
15
Aug 2024
14
1
1
16
Sep 2024
7
2
0
9
Oct 2024
3
3
0
6
Nov 2024
7
2
3
12
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 07 Mar 2014)
Month
HTML views
PDF downloads
XML downloads
Mar 2014
101
82
4
Apr 2014
143
117
8
May 2014
176
129
10
Jun 2014
194
135
10
Jul 2014
208
165
13
Aug 2014
212
171
13
Sep 2014
218
173
16
Oct 2014
225
175
16
Nov 2014
230
178
16
Dec 2014
242
189
18
Jan 2015
250
201
20
Feb 2015
253
203
20
Mar 2015
259
208
22
Apr 2015
264
211
22
May 2015
266
214
22
Jun 2015
282
216
24
Jul 2015
293
225
24
Aug 2015
300
229
27
Sep 2015
304
229
27
Oct 2015
317
232
29
Nov 2015
327
237
32
Dec 2015
328
242
33
Jan 2016
333
245
33
Feb 2016
338
246
33
Mar 2016
343
248
34
Apr 2016
345
251
34
May 2016
352
252
34
Jun 2016
356
253
34
Jul 2016
361
258
36
Aug 2016
364
259
37
Sep 2016
369
261
37
Oct 2016
373
262
37
Nov 2016
374
263
38
Dec 2016
377
265
39
Jan 2017
386
266
40
Feb 2017
389
266
40
Mar 2017
406
271
44
Apr 2017
426
284
46
May 2017
449
286
56
Jun 2017
470
289
61
Jul 2017
475
290
61
Aug 2017
481
295
63
Sep 2017
484
298
63
Oct 2017
490
300
63
Nov 2017
497
301
63
Dec 2017
505
302
65
Jan 2018
523
303
65
Feb 2018
545
304
70
Mar 2018
558
306
71
Apr 2018
568
308
73
May 2018
574
309
73
Jun 2018
580
311
73
Jul 2018
589
312
74
Aug 2018
596
315
75
Sep 2018
602
319
75
Oct 2018
612
327
75
Nov 2018
621
332
77
Dec 2018
630
338
79
Jan 2019
640
343
79
Feb 2019
643
345
79
Mar 2019
651
348
79
Apr 2019
664
353
79
May 2019
669
356
80
Jun 2019
674
359
82
Jul 2019
689
364
82
Aug 2019
697
367
83
Sep 2019
706
371
84
Oct 2019
713
373
84
Nov 2019
722
376
85
Dec 2019
733
381
86
Jan 2020
740
383
86
Feb 2020
749
384
86
Mar 2020
753
388
86
Apr 2020
757
388
87
May 2020
767
391
87
Jun 2020
774
392
87
Jul 2020
783
393
91
Aug 2020
793
394
94
Sep 2020
806
397
94
Oct 2020
811
402
95
Nov 2020
817
405
96
Dec 2020
829
410
96
Jan 2021
839
414
96
Feb 2021
845
416
96
Mar 2021
850
419
96
Apr 2021
863
424
96
May 2021
876
424
97
Jun 2021
884
424
97
Jul 2021
890
425
98
Aug 2021
898
426
99
Sep 2021
903
427
100
Oct 2021
919
428
100
Nov 2021
936
435
103
Dec 2021
953
437
104
Jan 2022
963
440
104
Feb 2022
977
440
104
Mar 2022
985
442
106
Apr 2022
990
445
106
May 2022
1,001
445
106
Jun 2022
1,012
446
107
Jul 2022
1,014
447
107
Aug 2022
1,025
447
107
Sep 2022
1,042
447
107
Oct 2022
1,065
448
107
Nov 2022
1,088
449
107
Dec 2022
1,094
449
107
Jan 2023
1,096
453
107
Feb 2023
1,107
456
107
Mar 2023
1,117
458
107
Apr 2023
1,122
458
107
May 2023
1,125
462
107
Jun 2023
1,131
462
108
Jul 2023
1,138
463
108
Aug 2023
1,144
465
108
Sep 2023
1,156
469
110
Oct 2023
1,176
471
111
Nov 2023
1,191
471
111
Dec 2023
1,207
471
111
Jan 2024
1,216
472
112
Feb 2024
1,224
473
112
Mar 2024
1,240
473
113
Apr 2024
1,253
476
117
May 2024
1,258
478
119
Jun 2024
1,271
479
121
Jul 2024
1,283
480
123
Aug 2024
1,297
481
124
Sep 2024
1,304
483
124
Oct 2024
1,307
486
124
Nov 2024
1,314
488
127
Cited
Saved
Latest update: 23 Nov 2024