Journal cover Journal topic
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

IF value: 1.558
IF1.558
IF 5-year value: 1.475
IF 5-year
1.475
CiteScore value: 2.8
CiteScore
2.8
SNIP value: 0.921
SNIP0.921
IPP value: 1.56
IPP1.56
SJR value: 0.571
SJR0.571
Scimago H <br class='widget-line-break'>index value: 55
Scimago H
index
55
h5-index value: 22
h5-index22
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/npgd-1-131-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npgd-1-131-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  07 Mar 2014

07 Mar 2014

Review status
This preprint was under review for the journal NPG but the revision was not accepted.

Implications of model error for numerical climate prediction

O. Martínez-Alvarado O. Martínez-Alvarado
  • Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK

Abstract. Numerical climate models constitute the best available tools to tackle the problem of climate prediction. Two assumptions lie at the heart of their suitability: (1) a climate attractor exists, and (2) the numerical climate model's attractor lies on the actual climate attractor, or at least on the projection of the climate attractor on the model's phase space. In this contribution, the Lorenz '63 system is used both as a prototype system and as an imperfect model to investigate the implications of the second assumption. By comparing results drawn from the Lorenz '63 system and from numerical weather and climate models, the implications of using imperfect models for the prediction of weather and climate are discussed. It is shown that the imperfect model's orbit and the system's orbit are essentially different, purely due to model error and not to sensitivity to initial conditions. Furthermore, if a model is a perfect model, then the attractor, reconstructed by sampling a collection of initialised model orbits (forecast orbits), will be invariant to forecast lead time. This conclusion provides an alternative method for the assessment of climate models.

O. Martínez-Alvarado

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

O. Martínez-Alvarado

O. Martínez-Alvarado

Viewed

Total article views: 1,294 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
803 397 94 1,294 55 66
  • HTML: 803
  • PDF: 397
  • XML: 94
  • Total: 1,294
  • BibTeX: 55
  • EndNote: 66
Views and downloads (calculated since 07 Mar 2014)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 07 Mar 2014)

Cited

Saved

Discussed

No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 25 Sep 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation