Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-31
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-31
20 Jul 2020
 | 20 Jul 2020
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal NPG. A final paper is not foreseen.

Influence of extreme events modeled by Lévy flight on global thermohaline circulation stability

Daniel Tesfay, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng, Pingyuan Wei, Jinqiao Duan, and Jürgen Kurths

Abstract. How will extreme events due to human activities and climate change affect the oceanic thermohaline circulation is a key concern in climate predictions. The stability of the thermohaline circulation with respect to extreme events, such as fresh-water oscillations, greenhouse gas accumulations and collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, is examined using a conceptual stochastic Stommel two-compartment model. The extreme fluctuations are modeled by symmetric α-stable Lévy motions whose pathways are cádlág functions with at most a countable number of jumps. The mean first passage time, escape probability and stochastic basin of attraction are used to perform the stability analysis of on (off) equilibrium states. Our results argue that for model with weak fresh-water forcing strength, the greatest threat to the stability of the on-state represents noise with low jumps and higher frequency that can be seen as civilization-induced greenhouse gas accumulation. On the other hand, the off-state stability is more vulnerable to the agitations with moderate jumps and frequencies which can be interpreted as wind- driven circulations towards higher latitudes. Under the repercussion of stochastic noise, on to off transitions are more expected in the model if the fresh-water influx is strong. Moreover, transitions from one metastable state to another are equiprobable when the fresh-water input induces a symmetric potential well.

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Daniel Tesfay, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng, Pingyuan Wei, Jinqiao Duan, and Jürgen Kurths

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Daniel Tesfay, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng, Pingyuan Wei, Jinqiao Duan, and Jürgen Kurths
Daniel Tesfay, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng, Pingyuan Wei, Jinqiao Duan, and Jürgen Kurths

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Latest update: 19 May 2024
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This preprint has been withdrawn.

Short summary
For more than a decade, the climate has attracted stochastic dynamists with its unpredictable and complex phenomena. Our attention was attracted by the results of studies on the possibility of oceanic thermohaline circulation failure. We set the task to analyze the stability of the circulation current on-state and to predetermine what extreme events can unbalance it leading to attenuation. We also suggested possible scenarios for the resuscitation of the circulation in the event of its fading.