Influence of extreme events modeled by Lévy flight on global thermohaline circulation stability
- 1School of Mathematics and Statistics & Wuhan Center for Mathematical Sciences, Huazhong University of Science andTechnology, Wuhan 430074, China
- 2School of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA
- 3Department of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology, 312-567-5335, Chicago 60616, USA
- 4Research Domain on Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- 1School of Mathematics and Statistics & Wuhan Center for Mathematical Sciences, Huazhong University of Science andTechnology, Wuhan 430074, China
- 2School of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA
- 3Department of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology, 312-567-5335, Chicago 60616, USA
- 4Research Domain on Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Abstract. How will extreme events due to human activities and climate change affect the oceanic thermohaline circulation is a key concern in climate predictions. The stability of the thermohaline circulation with respect to extreme events, such as fresh-water oscillations, greenhouse gas accumulations and collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, is examined using a conceptual stochastic Stommel two-compartment model. The extreme fluctuations are modeled by symmetric α-stable Lévy motions whose pathways are cádlág functions with at most a countable number of jumps. The mean first passage time, escape probability and stochastic basin of attraction are used to perform the stability analysis of on (off) equilibrium states. Our results argue that for model with weak fresh-water forcing strength, the greatest threat to the stability of the on-state represents noise with low jumps and higher frequency that can be seen as civilization-induced greenhouse gas accumulation. On the other hand, the off-state stability is more vulnerable to the agitations with moderate jumps and frequencies which can be interpreted as wind- driven circulations towards higher latitudes. Under the repercussion of stochastic noise, on to off transitions are more expected in the model if the fresh-water influx is strong. Moreover, transitions from one metastable state to another are equiprobable when the fresh-water input induces a symmetric potential well.
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Preprint
(1016 KB)
Daniel Tesfay et al.
Interactive discussion


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RC1: 'accepted subject to minor revisions', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Sep 2020
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AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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RC2: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Oct 2020
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AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC1: 'Comment on npg-2020-31', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC2: 'Comment on npg-2020-31', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC3: 'Comment on npg-2020-31', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
Interactive discussion


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RC1: 'accepted subject to minor revisions', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Sep 2020
-
AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
-
AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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RC2: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Oct 2020
-
AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC1: 'Comment on npg-2020-31', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC2: 'Comment on npg-2020-31', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
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AC3: 'Comment on npg-2020-31', Larissa Serdukova, 10 Jan 2021
Daniel Tesfay et al.
Daniel Tesfay et al.
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