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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NPGD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NPGD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2198-5634</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/npg-2020-31</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Influence of extreme events modeled by Lévy flight on global thermohaline circulation stability</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tesfay</surname>
<given-names>Daniel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Serdukova</surname>
<given-names>Larissa</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zheng</surname>
<given-names>Yayun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wei</surname>
<given-names>Pingyuan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Duan</surname>
<given-names>Jinqiao</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2077-990X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kurths</surname>
<given-names>Jürgen</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Mathematics and Statistics &amp; Wuhan Center for Mathematical Sciences, Huazhong University of Science andTechnology, Wuhan 430074, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology, 312-567-5335, Chicago 60616, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Research Domain on Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>11801192, 11531006 and 11771449</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>20</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2020</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>16</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2020 Daniel Tesfay et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-31/">This article is available from https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-31/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-31/npg-2020-31.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2020-31/npg-2020-31.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p&gt;How will extreme events due to human activities and climate change affect the oceanic thermohaline circulation is a key concern in climate predictions. The stability of the thermohaline circulation with respect to extreme events, such as fresh-water oscillations, greenhouse gas accumulations and collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, is examined using a conceptual stochastic Stommel two-compartment model. The extreme fluctuations are modeled by symmetric α-stable Lévy motions whose pathways are cádlág functions with at most a countable number of jumps. The mean first passage time, escape probability and stochastic basin of attraction are used to perform the stability analysis of &lt;i&gt;on&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;i&gt;off&lt;/i&gt;) equilibrium states. Our results argue that for model with weak fresh-water forcing strength, the greatest threat to the stability of the &lt;i&gt;on&lt;/i&gt;-state represents noise with low jumps and higher frequency that can be seen as civilization-induced greenhouse gas accumulation. On the other hand, the &lt;i&gt;off&lt;/i&gt;-state stability is more vulnerable to the agitations with moderate jumps and frequencies which can be interpreted as wind-
driven circulations towards higher latitudes. Under the repercussion of stochastic noise, &lt;i&gt;on&lt;/i&gt; to &lt;i&gt;off&lt;/i&gt; transitions are more expected in the model if the fresh-water influx is strong. Moreover, transitions from one metastable state to another are equiprobable when the fresh-water input induces a symmetric potential well.&lt;/p&gt;</p>
</abstract>
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