We tested whether persistent homology reliably detects signals in hurricane track data. Applying three valid coordinate systems to the same storms, the method's conclusions flip between "signal" and "no signal." A calibration test confirmed systematic false-positive inflation. We propose a validation checklist before this method is trusted for hurricane analysis.

Modern Seismological networks allowed the observation of unprecedented seismic cycle characteristics. Using geophysical techniques we have identified conditions that describe eathquakes occurrence and seismic moment release complex processes. These conditions indicate that earthquakes are related over long distances and time-periods within a fractal geometry. These observations will likely improve our risk analysis capabilities and will provide better information to decision makers.

Natural hazards are often described by how much area is affected, but this can miss how the affected places are connected. This study shows that the same affected area can appear as scattered patches, several grouped zones, or one large connected region. Using observed liquefaction data and computer simulations, it shows that spatial connection gives important extra information for understanding hazard patterns and possible wider impacts.

Climate models often simplify Earth’s atmosphere and oceans to make complex calculations possible. This study examines how such simplifications can unintentionally change the mathematical structures that determine large-scale climate variability and wave behavior. Using examples from global temperature balance and ocean–atmosphere waves, the paper shows that some common approximations may alter the set of physically allowed patterns of variability rather than simply simplifying them.

We investigate how two different indicators related to measures of energy transfer can be used to assess the dynamics of tropical cyclones. One indicator is based on the energy redistribution across length-scales and the other one is based on more fundamental thermodynamic principles. This research demonstrates the potential of these indicators of being used as predictors for the intensity change of tropical cyclones even in under-resolved simulations.

Using more than 70 years of tornado records across the United States, we show that tornado damage paths follow surprisingly robust geometric patterns across a wide range of sizes. Longer tornadoes tend to become wider according to a consistent scaling law that remains stable despite major changes in observation methods over time. These results suggest that tornadoes may possess an underlying large-scale statistical organisation similar to that observed in other complex natural systems.

Modern environmental forecasting combines computer simulations with real-world observations. Most systems assume errors in these sources are independent, but in reality, they are occasionally linked. We developed a new method to estimate the hidden correlations. Using a simplified atmospheric model, we showed our method successfully identifies the correlations and significantly improves prediction accuracy. This work provides a practical path toward more reliable weather and ocean forecasts.

Many natural systems, including the atmosphere and ocean, are nonlinear, noisy, and only partly observed. We develop a continuous-time smoother that combines model dynamics with past, present, and future observations using a small ensemble, without tangent-linear or adjoint models. Using only an ensemble of order ten, the method improves hidden-state estimation, supports causal inference near extreme events, and helps discover missing model structure, offering a low-cost tool for reanalysis.

Extreme wildfire-driven pyro-cumulonimbus convection can generate long-lived stratospheric vortices, but their material coherence has been unclear. Using geodesic vortex detection on reanalysis winds from the 2019–2020 Australian bushfires, we identify a coherent vortex, Koobor, bounded by loops that resist filamentation and stretch nearly uniformly for up to 40 days. Across levels, it shows a ~60-day life cycle sustained by overlapping coherent boundaries.

This work studies a mathematical model of atmospheric convection with water condensation. We prove existence and uniqueness of a stationary solution for a nonlinear differential system governing vertical air flow. Numerical simulations reveal damped oscillations in flow intensity and liquid water content, driven by latent heat and droplet accumulation. A qualitative analogy with a Volterra integro-differential equation explains the memory-driven oscillatory dynamics underlying storm formation.

Climate tipping systems like the Atlantic circulation, the Amazon, and Greenland ice interact in ways that standard projections miss. By analysing decades of climate model output, we show that persistent memory in the Atlantic circulation causes extreme-event risk to be understated by up to six times. The Amazon, by contrast, is well described by conventional projections. Ignoring memory hides the most dangerous cascade pathways precisely where prevention is still possible.

This study introduces a new method to improve images of the Earth’s subsurface using seismic data. Because seismic signals are limited and noisy, estimating underground properties is difficult and often uncertain. Our method combines seismic measurements with information from wells and geology while grouping similar rock properties. Tests on synthetic and real data show that the approach produces clearer subsurface models and helps identify geological layers more reliably.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an ocean current that redistributes heat in the Atlantic Ocean and may abruptly weaken under climate change, with impacts including cooling in Europe and sea-level rise along the North American East Coast. Freshwater input from melting ice into the North Atlantic can push the system toward a tipping point. We introduce an artificial intelligence-based method to estimate the distance to this tipping point in terms of freshwater forcing.