Articles | Volume 27, issue 2
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 307–327, 2020

Special issue: Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 307–327, 2020

Research article 27 May 2020

Research article | 27 May 2020

Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory

Jonathan Demaeyer and Stéphane Vannitsem

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Cited articles

Bódai, T., Lucarini, V., and Lunkeit, F.: Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies?, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30, 023124,, 2020. a
Bonavita, M., Trémolet, Y., Holm, E., Lang, S. T. K., Chrust, M., Janisková, M., Lopez, P., Laloyaux, P., De Rosnay, P., Fisher, M., Hamrud, M., and English, S.: A strategy for data assimilation, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, available at: (last access: 20 May 2020), 2017. a
Cehelsky, P. and Tung, K. K.: Theories of multiple equilibria and weather regimes – A critical reexamination. Part II: Baroclinic two-layer models, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 3282–3303, 1987. a, b
Charney, J. G. and Straus, D. M.: Form-drag instability, multiple equilibria and propagating planetary waves in baroclinic, orographically forced, planetary wave systems, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1157–1176, 1980. a
De Cruz, L., Demaeyer, J., and Vannitsem, S.: The Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model: MAOOAM v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2793–2808,, 2016. a
Short summary
Postprocessing schemes used to correct weather forecasts are no longer efficient when the model generating the forecasts changes. An approach based on response theory to take the change into account without having to recompute the parameters based on past forecasts is presented. It is tested on an analytical model and a simple model of atmospheric variability. We show that this approach is effective and discuss its potential application for an operational environment.