Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic and ensemble forecasts
Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic and ensemble forecasts
Editor(s): Stephan Hemri, Sebastian Lerch, Maxime Taillardat, Stéphane Vannitsem, and Daniel S. Wilks
Statistical post-processing techniques for weather, climate, and hydrological forecasts are powerful approaches to compensate for effects of errors in model structure or initial conditions, and to calibrate inaccurately dispersed ensembles. These techniques are now an integral part of many forecasting suites and are employed in many end-user applications such as wind energy production or flood warning systems. Many of these techniques are now flourishing in the statistical, meteorological, climatological, hydrological, and engineering communities. The methods range in complexity from simple bias correction up to very sophisticated distribution-adjusting techniques that take into account correlations among the prognostic variables.

Conversely, there is more and more interest in building probabilistic forecasts based on various sources of information at various timescales, for instance data-driven nowcasting with numerical weather prediction models. In this context, statistical techniques are also used to provide reliable forecasts.

This special issue gathers contributions on theoretical developments in statistical post-processing and blending techniques, and on evaluations of their performances in different practical applications oriented toward environmental predictions.

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17 Nov 2020
Preface: Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic and ensemble forecasts
Stephan Hemri, Sebastian Lerch, Maxime Taillardat, Stéphane Vannitsem, and Daniel S. Wilks
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 519–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-519-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-519-2020, 2020
06 Oct 2020
Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst
Reinhold Hess
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 473–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-473-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-473-2020, 2020
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31 Aug 2020
Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields
Josh Jacobson, William Kleiber, Michael Scheuerer, and Joseph Bellier
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 411–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020, 2020
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12 Jun 2020
Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods
Sebastian Lerch, Sándor Baran, Annette Möller, Jürgen Groß, Roman Schefzik, Stephan Hemri, and Maximiliane Graeter
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 349–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-349-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-349-2020, 2020
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29 May 2020
From research to applications – examples of operational ensemble post-processing in France using machine learning
Maxime Taillardat and Olivier Mestre
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 329–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-329-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-329-2020, 2020
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27 May 2020
Correcting for model changes in statistical postprocessing – an approach based on response theory
Jonathan Demaeyer and Stéphane Vannitsem
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 307–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-307-2020, 2020
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23 Apr 2020
Vertical profiles of wind gust statistics from a regional reanalysis using multivariate extreme value theory
Julian Steinheuer and Petra Friederichs
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 239–252, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-239-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-239-2020, 2020
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27 Feb 2020
Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation
André Düsterhus
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-121-2020, 2020
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06 Feb 2020
Order of operation for multi-stage post-processing of ensemble wind forecast trajectories
Nina Schuhen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 35–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-35-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-35-2020, 2020
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05 Feb 2020
Remember the past: a comparison of time-adaptive training schemes for non-homogeneous regression
Moritz N. Lang, Sebastian Lerch, Georg J. Mayr, Thorsten Simon, Reto Stauffer, and Achim Zeileis
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 23–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-23-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-23-2020, 2020
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26 Sep 2019
Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts of the height of new snow
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Matthieu Vernay, Joseph Bellier, Guillaume Evin, and Bruno Joly
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-339-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-339-2019, 2019
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