Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-249-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-249-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 May 2015
Research article |
| 04 May 2015
A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change
P. C. Yan
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
G. L. Feng
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China
W. Hou
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
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Pengcheng Yan, Wei Hou, and Guolin Feng
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 115–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-115-2016, 2016
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In the previous work (Yan et al., 2015, NPG), we proposed a novel method to detect the transition process of climate change and exposed a new understanding of climate change. In this work, by using this method, we studied several climate changes of the sea surface temperature over the past century. The result shows that the system is bi-stable, and the persist time of transition process is shortened. Besides, a quantitative relation among the transition process parameters is obtained and verified.
Pengcheng Yan, Guolin Feng, Wei Hou, and Ping Yang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 489–500, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-489-2020, 2020
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A system transiting from one stable state to another has to experience a period. Can we predict the end moment (state) if the process has not been completed? This paper presents a method to solve this problem. This method is based on the quantitative relationship among the parameters, which is used to describe the transition process of the abrupt change. By using the historical data, we extract some parameters for predicting the uncompleted climate transition process.
Pengcheng Yan, Wei Hou, and Guolin Feng
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 115–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-115-2016, 2016
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In the previous work (Yan et al., 2015, NPG), we proposed a novel method to detect the transition process of climate change and exposed a new understanding of climate change. In this work, by using this method, we studied several climate changes of the sea surface temperature over the past century. The result shows that the system is bi-stable, and the persist time of transition process is shortened. Besides, a quantitative relation among the transition process parameters is obtained and verified.
Related subject area
Subject: Bifurcation, dynamical systems, chaos, phase transition, nonlinear waves, pattern formation | Topic: Climate, atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere
On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics
Applying dynamical systems techniques to real ocean drifters
Observations of shoaling internal wave transformation over a gentle slope in the South China Sea
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere
Effects of rotation and topography on internal solitary waves governed by the rotating Gardner equation
Estimate of energy loss from internal solitary waves breaking on slopes
Regional study of mode-2 internal solitary waves at the Pacific coast of Central America using marine seismic survey data
The effect of strong shear on internal solitary-like waves
Enhanced diapycnal mixing with polarity-reversing internal solitary waves revealed by seismic reflection data
Enhanced internal tidal mixing in the Philippine Sea mesoscale environment
Detecting flow features in scarce trajectory data using networks derived from symbolic itineraries: an application to surface drifters in the North Atlantic
Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later
Anthropocene climate bifurcation
Effects of upwelling duration and phytoplankton growth regime on dissolved-oxygen levels in an idealized Iberian Peninsula upwelling system
Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities in planetary atmospheres: energetics, equilibration and adjustment
Numerical bifurcation methods applied to climate models: analysis beyond simulation
Lyapunov analysis of multiscale dynamics: the slow bundle of the two-scale Lorenz 96 model
Competition between chaotic advection and diffusion: stirring and mixing in a 3-D eddy model
Climatic responses to systematic time variations of parameters: a dynamical approach
Evaluating a stochastic parametrization for a fast–slow system using the Wasserstein distance
Wave propagation in the Lorenz-96 model
Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years
On the CCN (de)activation nonlinearities
Detecting changes in forced climate attractors with Wasserstein distance
Insights into the three-dimensional Lagrangian geometry of the Antarctic polar vortex
Subvisible cirrus clouds – a dynamical system approach
Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula
Dynamics of the Hadley circulation in an axisymmetric model undergoing stratification periodic forcing
Detecting and tracking eddies in oceanic flow fields: a Lagrangian descriptor based on the modulus of vorticity
Oscillations in a simple climate–vegetation model
Equilibrium temperature distribution and Hadley circulation in an axisymmetric model
Joshua Dorrington and Tim Palmer
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 49–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric models often include random forcings, which aim to replicate the impact of processes too small to be resolved. Recent results in simple atmospheric models suggest that this random forcing can actually stabilise certain slow-varying aspects of the system, which could provide a path for resolving known errors in our models. We use randomly forced simulations of a
toychaotic system and theoretical arguments to explain why this strange effect occurs – at least in simple models.
Irina I. Rypina, Timothy Getscher, Lawrence J. Pratt, and Tamay Ozgokmen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 345–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-345-2022, 2022
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Techniques from dynamical systems theory have been widely used to study transport in ocean flows. However, they have been typically applied to numerically simulated trajectories of water parcels. This paper applies different dynamical systems techniques to real ocean drifter trajectories from the massive release in the Gulf of Mexico. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive comparison of the performance of different dynamical systems techniques with application to real drifters.
Steven R. Ramp, Yiing Jang Yang, Ching-Sang Chiu, D. Benjamin Reeder, and Frederick L. Bahr
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 279–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-279-2022, 2022
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Earlier work in the vicinity of the shelf and slope in the northeastern South China Sea serendipitously revealed the presence of large, stunning bed forms (sand dunes) whose height (>15 m) and length (>350 m) are quite unique and unusual. We hypothesize that the dunes formed due to shoaling very large-amplitude nonlinear internal waves that scour the bottom and resuspend and redistribute the sediments. As a first step, the wave characteristics are observed and described in detail.
Kolja L. Kypke, William F. Langford, Gregory M. Lewis, and Allan R. Willms
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 219–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022, 2022
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Climate change is causing rapid temperature increases in the polar regions. A fundamental question is whether these temperature increases are reversible. If we control carbon dioxide emissions, will the temperatures revert or will we have passed a tipping point beyond which return to the present state is impossible? Our mathematical model of the Arctic climate indicates that under present emissions the Arctic climate will change irreversibly to a warm climate before the end of the century.
Karl R. Helfrich and Lev Ostrovsky
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 207–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-207-2022, 2022
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Internal solitons are an important class of nonlinear waves commonly observed in coastal oceans. Their propagation is affected by the Earth's rotation and the variation in the water depth. We consider an interplay of these factors using the corresponding extension of the Gardner equation. This model allows a limiting soliton amplitude and the corresponding increase in wavelength, making the effects of rotation and topography on a shoaling wave especially significant.
Kateryna Terletska and Vladimir Maderich
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 161–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-161-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-161-2022, 2022
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Internal solitary waves (ISWs) emerge in the ocean and seas in various forms and break on the shelf zones in a variety of ways. This results in intensive mixing that affects processes such as biological productivity and sediment transport. Mechanisms of wave interaction with slopes are related to breaking and changing polarity. Our study focuses on wave transformation over idealized shelf-slope topography using a two-layer stratification. Four types of ISW transformation over slopes are shown.
Wenhao Fan, Haibin Song, Yi Gong, Shun Yang, and Kun Zhang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-141-2022, 2022
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Compared with mode-1 internal solitary waves (ISWs), mode-2 ISWs in the ocean require further study. A mass of mode-2 ISWs developing at the Pacific coast of Central America have been imaged using seismic reflection data. We find that the relationship between the mode-2 ISW propagation speed and amplitude is diverse. It is affected by seawater depth, pycnocline depth, and pycnocline thickness. The ISW vertical amplitude structure is affected by the ISW nonlinearity and the pycnocline deviation.
Marek Stastna, Aaron Coutino, and Ryan K. Walter
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 585–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-585-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-585-2021, 2021
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Large-amplitude waves in the interior of the ocean-internal waves in the ocean propagate in a dynamic, highly variable environment with changes in background current, local depth, and stratification. These waves have a well-known mathematical theory that, despite considerable progress, has some gaps. In particular, waves have been observed in situations that preclude an application of the mathematical theory. We present numerical simulations of the spontaneous generation of such waves.
Yi Gong, Haibin Song, Zhongxiang Zhao, Yongxian Guan, Kun Zhang, Yunyan Kuang, and Wenhao Fan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 445–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-445-2021, 2021
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When the internal solitary wave propagates to the continental shelf and slope, the polarity reverses due to the shallower water depth. In this process, the internal solitary wave dissipates energy and enhances diapycnal mixing, thus affecting the local oceanic environment. In this study, we used reflection seismic data to evaluate the spatial distribution of the diapycnal mixing around the polarity-reversing internal solitary waves.
Jia You, Zhenhua Xu, Qun Li, Robin Robertson, Peiwen Zhang, and Baoshu Yin
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 271–284, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-271-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-271-2021, 2021
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Turbulent mixing in the ocean is mainly attributed to internal wave breaking, but the modulation of the mesoscale environment is unclear. The spatially inhomogeneous and seasonally variable diapycnal diffusivities in the upper Philippine Sea were estimated from Argo float data using a strain-based, fine-scale parameterization. Internal tides contributed significant diapycnal mixing here, with the mesoscale environment greatly regulating the intensity and spatial inhomogeneity of tidal mixing.
David Wichmann, Christian Kehl, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Erik van Sebille
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 501–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-501-2020, 2020
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The surface transport of heat, nutrients and plastic in the North Atlantic Ocean is organized into large-scale flow structures. We propose a new and simple method to detect such features in ocean drifter data sets by identifying groups of trajectories with similar dynamical behaviour using network theory. We successfully detect well-known regions such as the Subpolar and Subtropical gyres, the Western Boundary Current region and the Caribbean Sea.
Michael Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020, 2020
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The scientific questions posed by the climate sciences are central to socioeconomic concerns today. This paper revisits several crucial questions, starting with
What can we predict beyond 1 week, for how long, and by what methods?, and ending with
Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century?We review the progress in dealing with the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the Earth system and emphasize major strides in coupled climate–economy modeling.
Kolja Leon Kypke, William Finlay Langford, and Allan Richard Willms
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 391–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020, 2020
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The climate of Earth is governed by nonlinear processes of geophysics. This paper presents energy balance models (EBMs) embracing these nonlinear processes which lead to positive feedback, amplifying the effects of anthropogenic forcing and leading to bifurcations. We define bifurcation as a change in the topological equivalence class of the system. We initiate a bifurcation analysis of EBMs of Anthropocene climate, which shows that a catastrophic climate change may occur in the next century.
João H. Bettencourt, Vincent Rossi, Lionel Renault, Peter Haynes, Yves Morel, and Véronique Garçon
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 277–294, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-277-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-277-2020, 2020
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The oceans are losing oxygen, and future changes may worsen this problem. We performed computer simulations of an idealized Iberian Peninsula upwelling system to identify the main fine-scale processes driving dissolved oxygen variability as well as study the response of oxygen levels to changes in wind patterns and phytoplankton species. Our results suggest that oxygen levels would decrease if the wind blows for long periods of time or if phytoplankton is dominated by species that grow slowly.
Peter Read, Daniel Kennedy, Neil Lewis, Hélène Scolan, Fachreddin Tabataba-Vakili, Yixiong Wang, Susie Wright, and Roland Young
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 147–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-147-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-147-2020, 2020
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Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities are well known as the processes responsible for the production of the most important energy-containing eddies in the atmospheres and oceans of Earth and other planets. Linear and nonlinear instability theories provide insights into when such instabilities may occur, grow to a large amplitude and saturate, with examples from the laboratory, simplified numerical models and planetary atmospheres. We conclude with a number of open issues for future research.
Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 359–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-359-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-359-2019, 2019
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I provide a personal view on the role of bifurcation analysis of climate models in the development of a theory of variability in the climate system. By outlining the state of the art of the methodology and by discussing what has been done and what has been learned from a hierarchy of models, I will argue that there are low-order phenomena of climate variability, such as El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Mallory Carlu, Francesco Ginelli, Valerio Lucarini, and Antonio Politi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 73–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-73-2019, 2019
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We explore the nature of instabilities in a well-known meteorological toy model, the Lorenz 96, to unravel key mechanisms of interaction between scales of different resolutions and time scales. To do so, we use a mathematical machinery known as Lyapunov analysis, allowing us to capture the degrees of chaoticity associated with fundamental directions of instability. We find a non-trivial group of such directions projecting significantly on slow variables, associated with long term dynamics.
Genevieve Jay Brett, Larry Pratt, Irina Rypina, and Peng Wang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 37–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-37-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-37-2019, 2019
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The relative importance of chaotic stirring and smaller-scale turbulent mixing for the distribution of dye in an idealized ocean flow feature is quantified using three different methods. We find that stirring is the dominant process in large areas with fast stirring, while mixing dominates in small fast-stirring regions and all slow-stirring regions. This quantification of process dominance can help oceanographers think about when to model stirring accurately, which can be costly.
Catherine Nicolis
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 649–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-649-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-649-2018, 2018
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Ordinarily the climatic impact of systematic variations of parameters arising from anthropogenic effects is addressed on the basis of large numerical models, where parameters are set to a prescribed level and the system is subsequently left to relax. We have revisited the problem from a nonlinear dynamics perspective in which the time variation of parameters is fully incorporated into the evolution laws. Some universal trends of the response have been identified.
Gabriele Vissio and Valerio Lucarini
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 413–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-413-2018, 2018
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Constructing good parametrizations is key when studying multi-scale systems. We consider a low-order model and derive a parametrization via a recently developed statistical mechanical approach. We show how the method allows for seamlessly treating the case when the unresolved dynamics is both faster and slower than the resolved one. We test the skill of the parametrization by using the formalism of the Wasserstein distance, which allows for measuring how different two probability measures are.
Dirk L. van Kekem and Alef E. Sterk
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 301–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-301-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-301-2018, 2018
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In this paper we investigate the spatiotemporal properties of waves in the Lorenz-96 model. In particular, we explain how these properties are related to the presence of Hopf and pitchfork bifurcations. We also explain bifurcation scenarios by which multiple stable waves can coexist for the same parameter values.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Pascal Yiou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, 2017
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We study the dynamical properties of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation by analysing the sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency field over the period 1948–2013. The metrics are linked to the predictability and the persistence of the atmospheric flows. We study the dependence on the seasonal cycle and the fields corresponding to maxima and minima of the dynamical indicators.
Sylwester Arabas and Shin-ichiro Shima
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 535–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-535-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-535-2017, 2017
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The paper bridges cloud/aerosol modelling with bifurcation analysis. It identifies two nonlinear peculiarities in the differential equations describing formation of atmospheric clouds through vapour condensation on a population of aerosol particles. A key finding of the paper is an analytic estimate for the timescale of the process. The study emerged from discussions on the causes of hysteretic behaviour of the system that we observed in the results of numerical simulations.
Yoann Robin, Pascal Yiou, and Philippe Naveau
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 393–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-393-2017, 2017
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If climate is viewed as a chaotic dynamical system, its trajectories yield on an object called an attractor. Being perturbed by an external forcing, this attractor could be modified. With Wasserstein distance, we estimate on a derived Lorenz model the impact of a forcing similar to climate change. Our approach appears to work with small data sizes. We have obtained a methodology quantifying the deformation of well-known attractors, coherent with the size of data available.
Jezabel Curbelo, Víctor José García-Garrido, Carlos Roberto Mechoso, Ana Maria Mancho, Stephen Wiggins, and Coumba Niang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 379–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-379-2017, 2017
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Lagrangian coherent structures have supported the description of transport processes in fluid dynamics. In this work we use the M function to provide new insights into the 3-D Lagrangian structure of the southern stratosphere. Dynamical systems concepts appropriate to 3-D, such as normally hyperbolic invariant curves, are discussed and applied to describe the vertical extension of the stratospheric polar vortex and its evolution.
Elisa Johanna Spreitzer, Manuel Patrik Marschalik, and Peter Spichtinger
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 307–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-307-2017, 2017
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We developed a simple analytical model for describing subvisible cirrus clouds qualitatively. Using theory of dynamical systems we found two different states for the long-term behaviour of subvisible cirrus clouds, i.e. an attractor case (stable equilibrium point) and a limit cycle scenario. The transition between the states constitutes a Hopf bifurcation and is determined by environmental conditions such as vertical updraughts and temperature.
Daniel Garaboa-Paz, Nieves Lorenzo, and Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 227–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-227-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-227-2017, 2017
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This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain.
Nazario Tartaglione
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 167–178, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-167-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-167-2017, 2017
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This paper aims to show how the tropical circulation responds to changes of the vertical stratification of the imposed temperature that drives the model. These changes mimic the presence of water vapor cycles. Thus, for simplicity's sake we impose a periodic change of this stratification with variable periods of 10–90 days. The model responds with quasi-periodic oscillations having two or more dominant frequencies. After a long forcing time period, chaotic behavior starts to appear cyclically.
Rahel Vortmeyer-Kley, Ulf Gräwe, and Ulrike Feudel
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 159–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-159-2016, 2016
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Since eddies play a major role in the dynamics of oceanic flows, it is of great interest to gain information about their tracks, lifetimes and shapes. We develop an eddy tracking tool based on structures in the flow with collecting (attracting) or separating (repelling) properties. In test cases mimicking oceanic flows it yields eddy lifetimes close to the analytical ones. It even provides a detailed view of the dynamics that can be useful to gain more insight into eddy dynamics in oceanic flows.
J. Rombouts and M. Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 275–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-275-2015, 2015
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Our conceptual model describes global temperature and vegetation extent. We use elements from Daisyworld and classical energy balance models and add an ocean with sea ice. The model exhibits oscillatory behavior within a plausible range of parameter values.
Its periodic solutions have sawtooth behavior that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of Quaternary glaciation cycles. The model is one of the simplest of its kind to produce such oscillatory behavior.
N. Tartaglione
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 173–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-173-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-173-2015, 2015
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At the Equator, where the heating is larger than that at other latitudes, air rises and diverges poleward in the upper troposphere, descending more or less at 30° latitude; this circulation is the Hadley cell.
We studied the impact of different meridional and vertical temperature distributions on a few features of the Hadley cell. Some parameters show a regular dependence on these distributions; others remain rather stable with distributions, but when they change, they do it in an abrupt way.
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Short summary
A novel method is created to detect the process of the abrupt change, which has not been mentioned yet in traditional research. By building an ideal time series with a transition process, the results show that the process could be detected clearly. When applied to a climate index, this method detects five processes, and all of them have reappeared via the “start-end states” phase diagram. Additionally, it is detectable that the persist time of the process is related to global warming.
A novel method is created to detect the process of the abrupt change, which has not been...
