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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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NPG | Articles | Volume 27, issue 1
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 121–131, 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 121–131, 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 27 Feb 2020

Research article | 27 Feb 2020

Seasonal statistical–dynamical prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation by probabilistic post-processing and its evaluation

André Düsterhus

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Cited articles

Baehr, J., Fröhlich, K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D. I. V., Kornblueh, L., Notz, D., Piontek, R., Pohlmann, H., Tietsche, S., and Müller, W. A.: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2723–2735, 2015. a
Butler, A. H., Arribas, A., Athanassiadou, M., Baehr, J., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Déqué, M., Domeisen, D. I. V., Fröhlich, K., Hendon, H., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Iza, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Kumar, A., MacLachlan, C., Merryfield, W. J., Müller, W. A., O'Neill, A., Scaife, A. A., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Stockdale, T. N., and Yasuda, T.: The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 1413–1427, 2016. a, b
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge‐Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J., Park, B., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J., and Vitart, F.: The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, 2011. a, b
DelSole, T. and Tippett, M. K.: Forecast Comparison Based on Random Walks, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 615–626, 2016. a, b
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Pavan, V., and Stephenson, D. B.: The skill of multi-model seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, Clim. Dynam., 21, 501–514, 2003. a
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Seasonal prediction of the of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been improved in recent years by improving dynamical models and ensemble predictions. One step therein was the so-called sub-sampling, which combines statistical and dynamical predictions. This study generalises this approach and makes it much more accessible. Furthermore, it presents a new verification approach for such predictions.
Seasonal prediction of the of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been improved in recent...