Articles | Volume 30, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-167-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-167-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Exploring meteorological droughts' spatial patterns across Europe through complex network theory
Domenico Giaquinto
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Modeling and Engineering Risk and Complexity, Scuola Superiore Meridionale, Naples, Italy
Warner Marzocchi
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse, University of Naples “Federico II”, Naples, Italy
Modeling and Engineering Risk and Complexity, Scuola Superiore Meridionale, Naples, Italy
Jürgen Kurths
Modeling and Engineering Risk and Complexity, Scuola Superiore Meridionale, Naples, Italy
Research Domain IV – Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
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Tobias Braun, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Norbert Marwan, Juergen Kurths, Johannes Quaas, Albert Díaz-Guilera, Luis Gimeno, and Miguel D. Mahecha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7482510/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7482510/v2, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) move vast amounts of water through the atmosphere and often cause weather extremes, yet they are usually studied as regional events. Using 84 years of mapped AR trajectories, we reveal the global "roadmap" of ARs, a transport network of high-activity hubs, sparse atmospheric highways & hierarchical basins. Our approach shows how water vapor is systematically channelled through an atmospheric transport network, offering new ways to study changes in the global water cycle.
Adarsh Jojo Thomas, Jürgen Kurths, and Daniel Schertzer
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 131–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-131-2025, 2025
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We have developed a systematic approach to study the climate system at multiple scales using climate networks, which have been previously used to study correlations between time series in space at only a single scale. This new approach is used to upscale precipitation climate networks to study the Indian summer monsoon and to analyze strong dependencies between spatial regions, which change with changing scales.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
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We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
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Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
John Douglas, Helen Crowley, Vitor Silva, Warner Marzocchi, Laurentiu Danciu, and Rui Pinho
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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Estimates of the earthquake ground motions expected during the lifetime of a building or the length of an insurance policy are frequently calculated for locations around the world. Estimates for the same location from different studies can show large differences. These differences affect engineering, financial and risk management decisions. We apply various approaches to understand when such differences have an impact on such decisions and when they are expected because data are limited.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
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Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
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In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Abhirup Banerjee, Bedartha Goswami, Yoshito Hirata, Deniz Eroglu, Bruno Merz, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 213–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, 2021
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Short summary
Despite being among the most severe climate extremes, it is still challenging to assess droughts’ features for specific regions. In this paper we study meteorological droughts in Europe using concepts derived from climate network theory. By exploring the synchronization in droughts occurrences across the continent we unveil regional clusters which are individually examined to identify droughts’ geographical propagation and source–sink systems, which could potentially support droughts’ forecast.
Despite being among the most severe climate extremes, it is still challenging to assess...