Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-671-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-671-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Sep 2018
Research article |
| 10 Sep 2018
| 10 Sep 2018
The onset of chaos in nonautonomous dissipative dynamical systems: a low-order ocean-model case study
Stefano Pierini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie, Universita' di Napoli Parthenope, Naples, Italy
CoNISMa, Rome, Italy
Mickaël D. Chekroun
University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
Michael Ghil
University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
Ecole Normale Supérieure and PSL Research University, Paris, France
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G. Sgubin, S. Pierini, and H. A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 10, 201–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-201-2014, 2014
A. Montuori, P. de Ruggiero, M. Migliaccio, S. Pierini, and G. Spezie
Ocean Sci., 9, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-121-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-121-2013, 2013
Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Mickaël David Chekroun, and Ilan Koren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.11545, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.11545, 2024
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This letter explores a novel approach for the formation of cloud droplets in rising adiabatic air parcels. Our approach combines microphysical equations accounting for moisture, updrafts and concentration of aerosols. Our analysis reveals three regimes: A) Low moisture and high concentration can hinder activation; B) Droplets can activate and stabilize above critical sizes, and C) sparse clouds can have droplets exhibiting activation and deactivation cycles.
Michael Ghil and Denisse Sciamarella
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 399–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-399-2023, 2023
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The problem of climate change is that of a chaotic system subject to time-dependent forcing, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases and natural volcanism. To solve this problem, we describe the mathematics of dynamical systems with explicit time dependence and those of studying their behavior through topological methods. Here, we show how they are being applied to climate change and its predictability.
Huan Liu, Ilan Koren, Orit Altaratz, and Mickaël D. Chekroun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6559–6569, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6559-2023, 2023
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Clouds' responses to global warming contribute the largest uncertainty in climate prediction. Here, we analyze 42 years of global cloud cover in reanalysis data and show a decreasing trend over most continents and an increasing trend over the tropical and subtropical oceans. A reduction in near-surface relative humidity can explain the decreasing trend in cloud cover over land. Our results suggest potential stress on the terrestrial water cycle, associated with global warming.
Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 863–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-863-2022, 2022
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Building upon Milancovic's theory of orbital forcing, this paper reviews the interplay between intrinsic variability and external forcing in the emergence of glacial interglacial cycles. It provides the reader with historical background information and with basic theoretical concepts used in recent paleoclimate research. Moreover, it presents new results which confirm the reduced stability of glacial-cycle dynamics after the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 18, 249–271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-249-2022, 2022
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The study of abrupt climate changes is a relatively new field of research that addresses paleoclimate variations that occur in intervals of tens to hundreds of years. Such timescales are much shorter than the tens to hundreds of thousands of years that the astronomical theory of climate addresses. We revisit several high-resolution proxy records of the past 3.2 Myr and show that the abrupt climate changes are nevertheless affected by the orbitally induced insolation changes.
Eviatar Bach and Michael Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2021-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2021-35, 2021
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Data assimilation (DA) is the process of combining model forecasts with observations in order to provide an optimal estimate of the system state. When models are imperfect, the uncertainty in the forecasts may be underestimated, requiring inflation of the corresponding error covariance. Here, we present a simple method for estimating the magnitude and structure of the model error covariance matrix. We demonstrate the efficacy of this method with idealized experiments.
Tom Dror, Mickaël D. Chekroun, Orit Altaratz, and Ilan Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12261–12272, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12261-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12261-2021, 2021
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A part of continental shallow convective cumulus (Cu) was shown to share properties such as organization and formation over vegetated areas, thus named green Cu. Mechanisms behind the formed patterns are not understood. We use different metrics and an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to decompose the dataset and quantify organization factors (cloud streets and gravity waves). We show that clouds form a highly organized grid structure over hundreds of kilometers at the field lifetime.
Michael Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020, 2020
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The scientific questions posed by the climate sciences are central to socioeconomic concerns today. This paper revisits several crucial questions, starting with
What can we predict beyond 1 week, for how long, and by what methods?, and ending with
Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century?We review the progress in dealing with the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the Earth system and emphasize major strides in coupled climate–economy modeling.
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Pierre Antoine, Niklas Boers, France Lagroix, Michael Ghil, Johanna Lomax, Markus Fuchs, Maxime Debret, Christine Hatté, Olivier Moine, Caroline Gauthier, Diana Jordanova, and Neli Jordanova
Clim. Past, 16, 713–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-713-2020, 2020
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New investigations of European loess records from MIS 6 reveal the occurrence of paleosols and horizon showing slight pedogenesis similar to those from the last climatic cycle. These units are correlated with interstadials described in various marine, continental, and ice Northern Hemisphere records. Therefore, these MIS 6 interstadials can confidently be interpreted as DO-like events of the penultimate climate cycle.
Niklas Boers, Mickael D. Chekroun, Honghu Liu, Dmitri Kondrashov, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Anders Svensson, Matthias Bigler, and Michael Ghil
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1171–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017, 2017
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We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern Greenland (NGRIP) oxygen and dust records of subdecadal resolution for the interval 59 to 22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the statistical and dynamical characteristics of the records, including the Dansgaard–Oeschger variability, with no need for external forcing. The crucial ingredients are cubic drift terms, nonlinear coupling terms between the oxygen and dust time series, and non-Markovian contributions.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017, 2017
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We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Keroboto B. Z. Ogutu, Fabio D'Andrea, Michael Ghil, and Charles Nyandwi
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-64, 2017
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The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement. While many studies in the literature treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, we show that mitigation costs do slow down economic growth over the next few decades, but only up to the mid-21st century or even earlier; growth reduction is compensated later on by having avoided climate negative impacts.
J. Rombouts and M. Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 275–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-275-2015, 2015
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Our conceptual model describes global temperature and vegetation extent. We use elements from Daisyworld and classical energy balance models and add an ocean with sea ice. The model exhibits oscillatory behavior within a plausible range of parameter values.
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G. Sgubin, S. Pierini, and H. A. Dijkstra
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D.-D. Rousseau, M. Ghil, G. Kukla, A. Sima, P. Antoine, M. Fuchs, C. Hatté, F. Lagroix, M. Debret, and O. Moine
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A. Montuori, P. de Ruggiero, M. Migliaccio, S. Pierini, and G. Spezie
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Subject: Predictability, probabilistic forecasts, data assimilation, inverse problems | Topic: Solid earth, continental surface, biogeochemistry
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Identification of linear response functions from arbitrary perturbation experiments in the presence of noise – Part 1: Method development and toy model demonstration
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An enhanced correlation identification algorithm and its application on spread spectrum induced polarization data
Magnitude correlations in a self-similar aftershock rates model of seismicity
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Suman Saini, Deepak Kumar Tyagi, Sushil Kumar, and Rajeev Sehrawat
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 175–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-175-2024, 2024
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Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Xavier Lana, and Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza
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Mukesh, Kuldeep Sarkar, and Upendra K. Singh
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Arundhuti Banerjee, Ylona van Dinther, and Femke C. Vossepoel
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Reyko Schachtschneider, Jan Saynisch-Wagner, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Maik Thomas
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Glacial isostatic adjustment is the delayed reaction of the Earth's lithosphere and mantle to changing mass loads of ice sheets or water. The deformation behaviour of the Earth's surface depends on the ability of the Earth's mantle to flow, i.e. its viscosity. It can be estimated from sea level observations, and in our study, we estimate mantle viscosity using sea level observations from the past. This knowledge is essential for understanding current sea level changes due to melting ice.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 501–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, 2021
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Linear response functions are a powerful tool to both predict and investigate the dynamics of a system when subjected to small perturbations. In practice, these functions must often be derived from perturbation experiment data. Nevertheless, current methods for this identification require a tailored perturbation experiment, often with many realizations. We present a method that instead derives these functions from a single realization of an experiment driven by any type of perturbation.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, 2021
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We apply a new identification method to derive the response functions that characterize the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to CO2 perturbations in an Earth system model. By means of these response functions, which generalize the usually employed single-valued sensitivities, we can reliably predict the response of the land carbon to weak perturbations. Further, we demonstrate how by this new method one can robustly derive and interpret internal spectra of timescales of the system.
Andong Xu, Yonghong Zhao, Muhammad Irfan Ehsan, Jiaying Yang, Qi Zhang, and Ru Liu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 379–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-379-2021, 2021
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Earthquake precursors and earthquake monitoring are always important in the earthquake research field, even if there is still debate about the existence of earthquake precursors. The existence of precursory signals is confirmed by our results. We then attempt to capture and quantity precursors before rock fracture, by which we establish a link between the rock experiments and natural earthquakes. We try to make a different type of analysis by comparing their similar characteristics.
Siming He, Jian Guan, Xiu Ji, Hang Xu, and Yi Wang
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 247–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-247-2021, 2021
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We propose an enhanced correlation identification (ECI) algorithm to attenuate background noise. The cross-correlation matching method is helpful for the extraction of useful components of the raw SSIP data and suppression of background noise. Experiments on both synthetic and real SSIP data show that the ECI algorithm is proposed to preserve the valid information of the raw SSIP data to display the actual location and shape of adjacent high-resistivity anomalies.
Andres F. Zambrano Moreno and Jörn Davidsen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-1-2020, 2020
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We study a model containing the characteristic of self-similarity (invariance under scale) which allows for scaling between lab experiments and geographical-scale seismicity. Particular to this model is the dependency of the earthquake rates on the magnitude difference between events that are causally connected. We present results of a statistical analysis of magnitude correlations for the model along with its implications for the ongoing efforts in earthquake forecasting.
Xianqiong Cheng, Qihe Liu, Pingping Li, and Yuan Liu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 61–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-61-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-61-2019, 2019
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This paper is based on a deep learning neural network to invert the Rayleigh surface wave velocity of the crustal thickness, which is a new geophysical inversion solution that proved to be effective and practical. Through comparative experiments, we found that deep learning neural networks can more accurately reveal the non-linear relationship between phase velocity and crustal thickness than traditional shallow networks. Deep learning neural networks are more efficient than Monte Carlo methods.
Arnaud Mignan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 241–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-241-2018, 2018
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The Utsu productivity law, one of the main relationships in seismicity statistics, gives the average number of aftershocks produced by a mainshock of a given magnitude. I demonstrate that the law can be formulated in the solid seismicity theory, where it is parameterized in terms of aftershock density within a geometrical solid, constrained by the mainshock size. This suggests that aftershocks can be studied by applying simple rules of analytic geometry on a static stress field.
Marie Bocher, Alexandre Fournier, and Nicolas Coltice
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 99–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-99-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-99-2018, 2018
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We propose a new method to reconstruct the circulation in the Earth's mantle for the last 300 Myr. This method is based on the sequential assimilation of plate layouts obtained from plate tectonic reconstructions into mantle convection models. This method allows us to take into account uncertainties in plate tectonic reconstructions, and provides an estimation of the uncertainties in the final result. We test and validate this method in a controlled environment by using synthetic experiments.
V. C. Oliveira Jr., D. P. Sales, V. C. F. Barbosa, and L. Uieda
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 215–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-215-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-215-2015, 2015
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We have developed a fast total-field anomaly inversion to estimate the magnetization direction of multiple sources with approximately spherical shapes and known centres. It requires neither the prior computation of any transformation-like reduction to the pole nor the use of regularly spaced data on a horizontal grid. The method contains flexibility to be implemented as a linear or non-linear inverse problem. Applications to synthetic and field data show the good performance of our method.
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Short summary
A four-dimensional nonlinear spectral ocean model is used to study the transition to chaos induced by periodic forcing in systems that are nonchaotic in the autonomous limit. The analysis makes use of ensemble simulations and of the system's pullback attractors. A new diagnostic method characterizes the transition to chaos: this is found to occur abruptly at a critical value and begins with the intermittent emergence of periodic oscillations with distinct phases.
A four-dimensional nonlinear spectral ocean model is used to study the transition to chaos...
