Articles | Volume 31, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-381-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-381-2024
Research article
 | 
20 Aug 2024
Research article |  | 20 Aug 2024

The role of time-varying external factors in the intensification of tropical cyclones

Samuel Watson and Courtney Quinn

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Cited articles

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Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, 2012. a
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Cangialosi, J. P., Latto, A. S., and Berg, R.: Hurricane Irma (AL112017), Tech. rep., National Hurricane Centre, 2021. a, b
Dankowicz, H. and Schilder, F.: Recipes for continuation, SIAM, https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611972573, 2013. a
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Short summary
The intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) is explored through a conceptual model derived from geophysical principals. Focus is put on the behaviour of the model with parameters which change in time. The rates of change cause the model to either tip to an alternative stable state or recover the original state. This represents intensification, dissipation, or eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). A case study which emulates the rapid intensification events of Hurricane Irma (2017) is explored.
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