Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Research article
 | Highlight paper
15 Feb 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Feb 2023

A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe

Clara Deser and Adam S. Phillips

Related authors

Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411,,, 2021
Short summary
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438,,, 2020
Short summary
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508,,, 2020
Short summary
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
Doug M. Smith, James A. Screen, Clara Deser, Judah Cohen, John C. Fyfe, Javier García-Serrano, Thomas Jung, Vladimir Kattsov, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond, Jinro Ukita, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Xiangdong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1139–1164,,, 2019
Short summary
ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802,,, 2016
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Predictability, probabilistic forecasts, data assimilation, inverse problems | Topic: Climate, atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere | Techniques: Simulation
Using a hybrid optimal interpolation–ensemble Kalman filter for the Canadian Precipitation Analysis
Dikraa Khedhaouiria, Stéphane Bélair, Vincent Fortin, Guy Roy, and Franck Lespinas
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 329–344,,, 2022
Short summary
Control Simulation Experiments of Extreme Events with the Lorenz-96 Model
Qiwen Sun, Takemasa Miyoshi, and Serge Richard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.,,, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG
Short summary
Control simulation experiment with Lorenz's butterfly attractor
Takemasa Miyoshi and Qiwen Sun
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 133–139,,, 2022
Short summary
Reduced non-Gaussianity by 30 s rapid update in convective-scale numerical weather prediction
Juan Ruiz, Guo-Yuan Lien, Keiichi Kondo, Shigenori Otsuka, and Takemasa Miyoshi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 615–626,,, 2021
Short summary
A study of capturing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) regime transition through observation-constrained model parameters
Zhao Liu, Shaoqing Zhang, Yang Shen, Yuping Guan, and Xiong Deng
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 481–500,,, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Barnes, E. A., Hurrell, J. W., and Uphoff, I. E.: Viewing forced climate patterns through an AI lens, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13389–13398,, 2019. 
Berkeley Earth: Berkeley Earth's Global Temperature Report for 2022, Berkeley Earth [data set],, last access: 10 January 2022. 
Beusch, L., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159,, 2020. 
Bódai, T., Drótos, G., Herein, M., Lunkeit, F., and Lucarini, V.: The Forced Response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Indian Monsoon Teleconnection in Ensembles of Earth System Models, J. Climate, 33, 2163–2182,, 2020. 
Executive editor
The paper presents a valuable review of state-of-the-art large ensemble methodology, comparing observational-based analogues and model-generated perturbations with the aim of studying the impact of long-term variability on European past, present and future climate. This work is helpful as a theoretical and methodological benchmark for a number of open issues in ensemble modeling, that are currently the object of intense discussions in the research community. Given that this topic very much relates to the work done within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and ultimately to the redaction of the IPCC Assessment Reports, the paper is of major interest for the research community as well as for the broader public.
Short summary
Past and future climate change at regional scales is a result of both human influences and natural (internal) variability. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in climate modeling and physical understanding that has led to new insights into their respective roles, illustrated with original results for the European climate. Our findings highlight the confounding role of internal variability in attribution, climate model evaluation, and accuracy of future projections.