Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
15 Feb 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Feb 2023

A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe

Clara Deser and Adam S. Phillips

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Andrews, T., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Gregory, J. M., Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Paynter, D., Lin, P., Modak, A., Mauritsen, T., Cole, J. N. S., Medeiros, B., Benedict, J. J., Douville, H., Roehrig, R., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Ogura, T., Dufresne, J.-L., Allan, R. P., and Liu, C.: On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD036675, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675, 2022. 
Barnes, E. A., Hurrell, J. W., and Uphoff, I. E.: Viewing forced climate patterns through an AI lens, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13389–13398, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084944, 2019. 
Berkeley Earth: Berkeley Earth's Global Temperature Report for 2022, Berkeley Earth [data set], http://berkeleyearth.org/data/, last access: 10 January 2022. 
Beusch, L., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, 2020. 
Bódai, T., Drótos, G., Herein, M., Lunkeit, F., and Lucarini, V.: The Forced Response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Indian Monsoon Teleconnection in Ensembles of Earth System Models, J. Climate, 33, 2163–2182, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0341.1, 2020. 
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The paper presents a valuable review of state-of-the-art large ensemble methodology, comparing observational-based analogues and model-generated perturbations with the aim of studying the impact of long-term variability on European past, present and future climate. This work is helpful as a theoretical and methodological benchmark for a number of open issues in ensemble modeling, that are currently the object of intense discussions in the research community. Given that this topic very much relates to the work done within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and ultimately to the redaction of the IPCC Assessment Reports, the paper is of major interest for the research community as well as for the broader public.
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Past and future climate change at regional scales is a result of both human influences and natural (internal) variability. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in climate modeling and physical understanding that has led to new insights into their respective roles, illustrated with original results for the European climate. Our findings highlight the confounding role of internal variability in attribution, climate model evaluation, and accuracy of future projections.
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