Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Feb 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Feb 2023
| 15 Feb 2023
A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe
Clara Deser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Adam S. Phillips
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
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Cited
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Atlantic multidecadal variability control on European sea surface temperatures is mainly externally forced L. Barghorn et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adb6bf
- Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation F. Collet et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025
- The Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change on March–April–May (MAM) Drought Trends Across Global Land H. Yohannes et al. 10.1002/joc.8776
- Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950 D. Paprotny et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adt7068
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133414
- The climatological renewable energy deviation index (credi) L. Stoop et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad27b9
- Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability F. Lehner & C. Deser 10.1088/2752-5295/accf30
- Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions S. Karmouche et al. 10.5194/esd-15-689-2024
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
- Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe H. Douville et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07689-6
- CMIP6 models agree on similar carbon cycle feedbacks between enhancing terrestrial and marine carbon sinks H. Wey et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adc617
- Attribution of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia Y. Hu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adc293
- River flow amplification under climate change: attribution and climate-driven storylines of the winter 2023/24 UK floods W. Chan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adfdfe
- Review article: Interdisciplinary perspectives on climate sciences – highlighting past and current scientific achievements V. Galfi et al. 10.5194/npg-31-185-2024
- Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts J. Ekolu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131679
- Variation in hibernation patterns of a temperate zone mammal K. Crawford et al. 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2025.104186
- Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment S. Jain et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00389-0
- Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom I. Noguera et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025
- Groundwater stress in Europe—assessing uncertainties in future groundwater discharge alterations due to water abstractions and climate change L. Söller et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1448625
- Quantifying the Role of Model Internal Year-to-Year Variability in Estimating Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Effects X. Shi & Y. Zeng 10.3390/atmos15010079
- Seasonal Regime Shifts and Warming Trends in the Universal Thermal Climate Index over the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas (1940–2024) G. Cotlier & J. Jimenez 10.3390/cli13090184
- When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble G. Bonan et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00878-w
- Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines A. Liné et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2
- Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States M. Franke et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1385527
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Atlantic multidecadal variability control on European sea surface temperatures is mainly externally forced L. Barghorn et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adb6bf
- Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation F. Collet et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025
- The Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change on March–April–May (MAM) Drought Trends Across Global Land H. Yohannes et al. 10.1002/joc.8776
- Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950 D. Paprotny et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adt7068
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133414
- The climatological renewable energy deviation index (credi) L. Stoop et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad27b9
- Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability F. Lehner & C. Deser 10.1088/2752-5295/accf30
- Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions S. Karmouche et al. 10.5194/esd-15-689-2024
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
- Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe H. Douville et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07689-6
- CMIP6 models agree on similar carbon cycle feedbacks between enhancing terrestrial and marine carbon sinks H. Wey et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adc617
- Attribution of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia Y. Hu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adc293
- River flow amplification under climate change: attribution and climate-driven storylines of the winter 2023/24 UK floods W. Chan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adfdfe
- Review article: Interdisciplinary perspectives on climate sciences – highlighting past and current scientific achievements V. Galfi et al. 10.5194/npg-31-185-2024
- Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts J. Ekolu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131679
- Variation in hibernation patterns of a temperate zone mammal K. Crawford et al. 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2025.104186
- Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment S. Jain et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00389-0
- Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom I. Noguera et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025
- Groundwater stress in Europe—assessing uncertainties in future groundwater discharge alterations due to water abstractions and climate change L. Söller et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1448625
- Quantifying the Role of Model Internal Year-to-Year Variability in Estimating Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Effects X. Shi & Y. Zeng 10.3390/atmos15010079
- Seasonal Regime Shifts and Warming Trends in the Universal Thermal Climate Index over the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas (1940–2024) G. Cotlier & J. Jimenez 10.3390/cli13090184
- When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble G. Bonan et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00878-w
- Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines A. Liné et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2
Latest update: 14 Sep 2025
Executive editor
The paper presents a valuable review of state-of-the-art large ensemble methodology, comparing observational-based analogues and model-generated perturbations with the aim of studying the impact of long-term variability on European past, present and future climate. This work is helpful as a theoretical and methodological benchmark for a number of open issues in ensemble modeling, that are currently the object of intense discussions in the research community. Given that this topic very much relates to the work done within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and ultimately to the redaction of the IPCC Assessment Reports, the paper is of major interest for the research community as well as for the broader public.
The paper presents a valuable review of state-of-the-art large ensemble methodology, comparing...
Short summary
Past and future climate change at regional scales is a result of both human influences and natural (internal) variability. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in climate modeling and physical understanding that has led to new insights into their respective roles, illustrated with original results for the European climate. Our findings highlight the confounding role of internal variability in attribution, climate model evaluation, and accuracy of future projections.
Past and future climate change at regional scales is a result of both human influences and...
