Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Feb 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Feb 2023
| 15 Feb 2023
A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe
Clara Deser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Adam S. Phillips
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Viewed
Total article views: 7,648 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 19 Oct 2022)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,686 | 1,813 | 149 | 7,648 | 186 | 218 |
- HTML: 5,686
- PDF: 1,813
- XML: 149
- Total: 7,648
- BibTeX: 186
- EndNote: 218
Total article views: 6,104 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 15 Feb 2023)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,834 | 1,153 | 117 | 6,104 | 170 | 206 |
- HTML: 4,834
- PDF: 1,153
- XML: 117
- Total: 6,104
- BibTeX: 170
- EndNote: 206
Total article views: 1,544 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 19 Oct 2022)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 852 | 660 | 32 | 1,544 | 16 | 12 |
- HTML: 852
- PDF: 660
- XML: 32
- Total: 1,544
- BibTeX: 16
- EndNote: 12
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 7,648 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 7,369 with geography defined
and 279 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 6,104 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 5,918 with geography defined
and 186 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 1,544 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 1,451 with geography defined
and 93 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Atlantic multidecadal variability control on European sea surface temperatures is mainly externally forced L. Barghorn et al.
- Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK – a data-rich, temperate environment J. Hannaford et al.
- The power of hourly weather data: Observed air temperature climate trends for pragmatic decision-making L. McLaurin et al.
- Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation F. Collet et al.
- The Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change on March–April–May (MAM) Drought Trends Across Global Land H. Yohannes et al.
- Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950 D. Paprotny et al.
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al.
- The climatological renewable energy deviation index (credi) L. Stoop et al.
- Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability F. Lehner & C. Deser
- Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions S. Karmouche et al.
- Targeted weather regimes identify circulation patterns behind Western European summer heat extremes and trends J. Carvalho-Oliveira et al.
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al.
- Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe H. Douville et al.
- CMIP6 models agree on similar carbon cycle feedbacks between enhancing terrestrial and marine carbon sinks H. Wey et al.
- Effects of EU policy and climate change on future delivery of nutrients to European freshwater and seas B. Grizzetti et al.
- Attribution of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia Y. Hu et al.
- River flow amplification under climate change: attribution and climate-driven storylines of the winter 2023/24 UK floods W. Chan et al.
- Spatiotemporal trends and drivers of evapotranspiration across india’s diverse climatic zones H. Sushmitha et al.
- Review article: Interdisciplinary perspectives on climate sciences – highlighting past and current scientific achievements V. Galfi et al.
- Subseasonal variability of the winter North Atlantic jet stream has decreased due to climate change A. Vacca et al.
- Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts J. Ekolu et al.
- Variation in hibernation patterns of a temperate zone mammal K. Crawford et al.
- Intensifying hydroclimatic swings under a warming climate: Disentangling anthropogenic climate change and internal variability in North America W. Na et al.
- Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment S. Jain et al.
- Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom I. Noguera et al.
- Groundwater stress in Europe—assessing uncertainties in future groundwater discharge alterations due to water abstractions and climate change L. Söller et al.
- Detectable Human Influence on Reduced Day‐to‐Day Temperature Variability in the Cold Season Driven by Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss P. Siew et al.
- Amazon forest faces severe decline under the dual pressures of anthropogenic climate change and land-use change S. Bultan et al.
- Quantifying the Role of Model Internal Year-to-Year Variability in Estimating Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Effects X. Shi & Y. Zeng
- Seasonal Regime Shifts and Warming Trends in the Universal Thermal Climate Index over the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas (1940–2024) G. Cotlier & J. Jimenez
- When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble G. Bonan et al.
- Non-linear dynamical approaches for characterizing multi-sector climate impacts under irreducible uncertainty R. Mawalagedara et al.
- Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines A. Liné et al.
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Atlantic multidecadal variability control on European sea surface temperatures is mainly externally forced L. Barghorn et al.
- Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK – a data-rich, temperate environment J. Hannaford et al.
- The power of hourly weather data: Observed air temperature climate trends for pragmatic decision-making L. McLaurin et al.
- Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation F. Collet et al.
- The Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change on March–April–May (MAM) Drought Trends Across Global Land H. Yohannes et al.
- Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950 D. Paprotny et al.
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al.
- The climatological renewable energy deviation index (credi) L. Stoop et al.
- Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability F. Lehner & C. Deser
- Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions S. Karmouche et al.
- Targeted weather regimes identify circulation patterns behind Western European summer heat extremes and trends J. Carvalho-Oliveira et al.
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al.
- Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe H. Douville et al.
- CMIP6 models agree on similar carbon cycle feedbacks between enhancing terrestrial and marine carbon sinks H. Wey et al.
- Effects of EU policy and climate change on future delivery of nutrients to European freshwater and seas B. Grizzetti et al.
- Attribution of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia Y. Hu et al.
- River flow amplification under climate change: attribution and climate-driven storylines of the winter 2023/24 UK floods W. Chan et al.
- Spatiotemporal trends and drivers of evapotranspiration across india’s diverse climatic zones H. Sushmitha et al.
- Review article: Interdisciplinary perspectives on climate sciences – highlighting past and current scientific achievements V. Galfi et al.
- Subseasonal variability of the winter North Atlantic jet stream has decreased due to climate change A. Vacca et al.
- Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts J. Ekolu et al.
- Variation in hibernation patterns of a temperate zone mammal K. Crawford et al.
- Intensifying hydroclimatic swings under a warming climate: Disentangling anthropogenic climate change and internal variability in North America W. Na et al.
- Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment S. Jain et al.
- Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom I. Noguera et al.
- Groundwater stress in Europe—assessing uncertainties in future groundwater discharge alterations due to water abstractions and climate change L. Söller et al.
- Detectable Human Influence on Reduced Day‐to‐Day Temperature Variability in the Cold Season Driven by Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss P. Siew et al.
- Amazon forest faces severe decline under the dual pressures of anthropogenic climate change and land-use change S. Bultan et al.
- Quantifying the Role of Model Internal Year-to-Year Variability in Estimating Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Effects X. Shi & Y. Zeng
- Seasonal Regime Shifts and Warming Trends in the Universal Thermal Climate Index over the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas (1940–2024) G. Cotlier & J. Jimenez
- When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble G. Bonan et al.
- Non-linear dynamical approaches for characterizing multi-sector climate impacts under irreducible uncertainty R. Mawalagedara et al.
- Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines A. Liné et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Apr 2026
Editorial statement
The paper presents a valuable review of state-of-the-art large ensemble methodology, comparing observational-based analogues and model-generated perturbations with the aim of studying the impact of long-term variability on European past, present and future climate. This work is helpful as a theoretical and methodological benchmark for a number of open issues in ensemble modeling, that are currently the object of intense discussions in the research community. Given that this topic very much relates to the work done within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and ultimately to the redaction of the IPCC Assessment Reports, the paper is of major interest for the research community as well as for the broader public.
The paper presents a valuable review of state-of-the-art large ensemble methodology, comparing...
Short summary
Past and future climate change at regional scales is a result of both human influences and natural (internal) variability. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in climate modeling and physical understanding that has led to new insights into their respective roles, illustrated with original results for the European climate. Our findings highlight the confounding role of internal variability in attribution, climate model evaluation, and accuracy of future projections.
Past and future climate change at regional scales is a result of both human influences and...
