Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Research article
 | Highlight paper
15 Feb 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Feb 2023

A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe

Clara Deser and Adam S. Phillips


Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on npg-2022-15', Tamas Bodai, 19 Oct 2022
    • RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Tamas Bodai, 30 Oct 2022
      • CC2: 'Reply on RC2 -- what constitutes internal climate variability?', Paul PUKITE, 22 Nov 2022
        • RC3: 'Reply on CC2', Tamas Bodai, 23 Nov 2022
          • CC3: 'Reply on RC3', Paul PUKITE, 23 Nov 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', C. Deser, 14 Dec 2022
  • CC1: 'Comment on npg-2022-15', Gabor Drotos, 07 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', C. Deser, 16 Dec 2022
  • RC4: 'Comment on npg-2022-15', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Dec 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC4', C. Deser, 17 Dec 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by C. Deser on behalf of the Authors (27 Dec 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (04 Jan 2023) by Valerio Lembo
AR by C. Deser on behalf of the Authors (31 Jan 2023)  Author's response    Manuscript
Executive editor
The paper presents a valuable review of state-of-the-art large ensemble methodology, comparing observational-based analogues and model-generated perturbations with the aim of studying the impact of long-term variability on European past, present and future climate. This work is helpful as a theoretical and methodological benchmark for a number of open issues in ensemble modeling, that are currently the object of intense discussions in the research community. Given that this topic very much relates to the work done within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and ultimately to the redaction of the IPCC Assessment Reports, the paper is of major interest for the research community as well as for the broader public.
Short summary
Past and future climate change at regional scales is a result of both human influences and natural (internal) variability. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in climate modeling and physical understanding that has led to new insights into their respective roles, illustrated with original results for the European climate. Our findings highlight the confounding role of internal variability in attribution, climate model evaluation, and accuracy of future projections.