The impact of climate change on weather pattern dynamics over the North Atlantic is explored through the lens of information theory. These tools allow the predictability of the succession of weather patterns and the irreversible nature of the dynamics to be clarified. It is shown that the predictability is increasing in the observations, while the opposite trend is found in model projections. The irreversibility displays an overall increase in time in both the observations and the model runs.

This study investigates vertical localization based on a convection-permitting 1000-member ensemble simulation. We derive an empirical optimal localization (EOL) that minimizes sampling error in 40-member sub-sample correlations assuming 1000-member correlations as truth. The results will provide guidance for localization in convective-scale ensemble data assimilation systems.

Climate science is, as all sciences, a social process and as such conditioned by the zeitgeist of the time. It has an old history and has attained different political significances. Today, it is the challenge of anthropogenic climate change – and societies want answers about how to deal with it. In earlier times, it was mostly the ideology of climate determinism which led people to construct superiority and eventually colonialism.