Articles | Volume 28, issue 2
06 May 2021
Research article | 06 May 2021
Recurrence analysis of extreme event-like data
Abhirup Banerjee et al.
No articles found.
Renee van Dongen, Dirk Scherler, Dadiyorto Wendi, Eric Deal, Luca Mao, Norbert Marwan, and Claudio I. Meier
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that causes abnormal climatic conditions in Chile. We investigated how ENSO affects catchment hydrology and found strong seasonal and spatial differences in the hydrological response to ENSO which was caused by different hydrological processes in catchments that are dominated by snowmelt-generated runoff or rainfall-generated runoff. These results are relevant for water resources management and ENSO mitigation in Chile.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014,Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, triggered by intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy rainfall events (HREs) in western North America that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HREs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 days. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Yoshito Hirata and Yoshinori Yamada
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
We show that there exists some complicated days-of-week effects in precipitation at Tokyo. By using the effects, we could improve short-term precipitation forecasts up to 2 hours ahead.
Cinthya Esther Nava Fernandez, Tobias Braun, Bethany Fox, Adam Hartland, Ola Kwiecien, Chelsea Pederson, Sebastian Hoepker, Stefano Bernasconi, Madalina Jaggi, John Hellstrom, Fernando Gázquez, Amanda French, Norbert Marwan, Adrian Immenhauser, and Sebastian Franz Martin Breitenbach
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further reviewShort summary
We provide a ca. 1000 year long (6.4–5.4 ka BP) stalagmite-based reconstruction of mid-Holocene rainfall variability in the tropical western Pacific. The annually laminated multi-proxy (δ13C, δ18O, X/Ca, gray values) record comes from Niue island and informs on El Nino-Southern Oscillation and South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics. Our data suggest that ENSO was active and influenced rainfall seasonality over the covered time interval. Rainfall seasonality was subdued during active ENSO phases
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619,Short summary
In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364,Short summary
We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe. In northwestern and eastern Europe, changes in small and large floods are driven mainly by one single driver (i.e. extreme precipitation and snowmelt, respectively). In southern Europe both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation significantly contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on flood magnitude.
Gustavo Andrei Speckhann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 731–740,Short summary
Dams are an important element of water resources management. Data about dams are crucial for practitioners, scientists, and policymakers. We present the most comprehensive open-access dam inventory for Germany to date. The inventory combines multiple sources of information. It comprises 530 dams with information on name, location, river, start year of construction and operation, crest length, dam height, lake area, lake volume, purpose, dam structure, and building characteristics.
Daniel Tesfay, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng, Pingyuan Wei, Jinqiao Duan, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.,
Publication in NPG not foreseenShort summary
For more than a decade, the climate has attracted stochastic dynamists with its unpredictable and complex phenomena. Our attention was attracted by the results of studies on the possibility of oceanic thermohaline circulation failure. We set the task to analyze the stability of the circulation current on-state and to predetermine what extreme events can unbalance it leading to attenuation. We also suggested possible scenarios for the resuscitation of the circulation in the event of its fading.
Cinthya Nava-Fernandez, Adam Hartland, Fernando Gázquez, Ola Kwiecien, Norbert Marwan, Bethany Fox, John Hellstrom, Andrew Pearson, Brittany Ward, Amanda French, David A. Hodell, Adrian Immenhauser, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3361–3380,Short summary
Speleothems are powerful archives of past climate for understanding modern local hydrology and its relation to regional circulation patterns. We use a 3-year monitoring dataset to test the sensitivity of Waipuna Cave to seasonal changes and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Drip water data suggest a fast response to rainfall events; its elemental composition reflects a seasonal cycle and ENSO variability. Waipuna Cave speleothems have a high potential for past ENSO reconstructions.
Zhihua He, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Stephan M. Weise, Doris Duethmann, Olga Kalashnikova, Abror Gafurov, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3289–3309,Short summary
Quantifying the seasonal contributions of the runoff components, including groundwater, snowmelt, glacier melt, and rainfall, to streamflow is highly necessary for understanding the dynamics of water resources in glacierized basins given the vulnerability of snow- and glacier-dominated environments to the current climate warming. Our study provides the first comparison of two end-member mixing approaches for hydrograph separation in glacierized basins.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Ugur Ozturk, Jürgen Kurths, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2235–2251,Short summary
In the climate/hydrology network, each node represents a geographical location of climatological data, and links between nodes are set up based on their interaction or similar variability. Here, using network theory, we first generate a node-ranking measure and then prioritize the rain gauges to identify influential and expandable stations across Germany. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, we also compared the results with existing traditional and contemporary network measures.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979,Short summary
For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648,Short summary
Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Markus Drüke, Matthias Forkel, Werner von Bloh, Boris Sakschewski, Manoel Cardoso, Mercedes Bustamante, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5029–5054,Short summary
This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the implementation of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model. We have demonstrated a major improvement in the fire representation within LPJmL4-SPITFIRE in terms of the spatial pattern and the interannual variability of burned area in South America as well as in the modelling of biomass and the distribution of plant types.
Jürgen Kurths, Ankit Agarwal, Roopam Shukla, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Levke Caesar, Raghavan Krishnan, and Bruno Merz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 251–266,Short summary
We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different timescales, first by identifying homogeneous communities and later by computing non-linear linkages between the identified communities (spatial regions) and dominant climatic patterns, represented by climatic indices such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322,Short summary
We investigate whether flood probabilities in Europe vary for different large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Maximum seasonal river flows from 600 gauges in Europe and five synchronous atmospheric circulation indices are analyzed. We find that a high percentage of stations is influenced by at least one of the climate indices, especially during winter. These results can be useful for preparedness and damage planning by (re-)insurance companies.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Björn Guse, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108,Short summary
We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2876,Short summary
In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.
Marlies Holkje Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 379, 193–198,Short summary
The aim of this paper is to assess whether a Socio-Hydrological model can be calibrated to data artificially generated from it. This is not trivial because the model is highly nonlinear and it is not clear what amount of data would be needed for calibration. We demonstrate that, using Bayesian inference, the parameters of the model can be estimated quite accurately from relatively few data, which could be available in real case studies.
Nguyen Le Duy, Ingo Heidbüchel, Hanno Meyer, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1239–1262,Short summary
This study analyzes the influence of local and regional meteorological factors on the isotopic composition of precipitation. The impact of the different factors on the isotopic condition was quantified by multiple linear regression of all factor combinations combined with relative importance analysis. The proposed approach might open a pathway for the improved reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
Tim Kittel, Catrin Ciemer, Nastaran Lotfi, Thomas Peron, Francisco Rodrigues, Jürgen Kurths, and Reik V. Donner
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not accepted
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Bruno Merz, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 599–611,Short summary
Extreme events such as floods and droughts result from synchronization of different natural processes working at multiple timescales. Investigation on an observation timescale will not reveal the inherent underlying dynamics triggering these events. This paper develops a new method based on wavelets and event synchronization to unravel the hidden dynamics responsible for such sudden events. This method is tested with synthetic and real-world cases and the results are promising.
Niklas Boers, Bedartha Goswami, and Michael Ghil
Clim. Past, 13, 1169–1180,Short summary
We introduce a Bayesian framework to represent layer-counted proxy records as probability distributions on error-free time axes, accounting for both proxy and dating errors. Our method is applied to NGRIP δ18O data, revealing that the cumulative dating errors lead to substantial uncertainties for the older parts of the record. Applying our method to the widely used radiocarbon comparison curve derived from varved sediments of Lake Suigetsu provides the complete uncertainties of this curve.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010,Short summary
In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Mathias Seibert, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629,Short summary
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.
Finn Müller-Hansen, Manoel F. Cardoso, Eloi L. Dalla-Nora, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 113–123,Short summary
Deforestation and subsequent land uses in the Brazilian Amazon have huge impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, local climate and biodiversity. To better understand these land-cover changes, we apply complex systems methods uncovering spatial patterns in regional transition probabilities between land-cover types, which we estimate using maps derived from satellite imagery. The results show clusters of similar land-cover dynamics and thus complement studies at the local scale.
Lars Gerlitz, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4605–4623,Short summary
Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of well-known climate indices as potential predictor variables. However, for many target regions, these indices do not lead to sufficient results and customized predictors are required for an accurate prediction. This study presents a statistically based routine, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded SST and climate variables by means of an extensive data mining procedure.
Aline Murawski, Gerd Bürger, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4283–4306,Short summary
To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. Here the link between patterns and local climate is tested, and the skill of GCMs in reproducing these patterns is evaluated.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 373, 179–182,
Heiko Apel, Oriol Martínez Trepat, Nguyen Nghia Hung, Do Thi Chinh, Bruno Merz, and Nguyen Viet Dung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 941–961,Short summary
Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, thus this study aims to analyse fluvial and pluvial flood hazards as well as combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazards. This combined fluvial–pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed in a tropical environment for Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. The final results are probabilistic hazard maps, showing the maximum inundation caused by floods of different magnitudes along with an uncertainty estimation.
T. Nocke, S. Buschmann, J. F. Donges, N. Marwan, H.-J. Schulz, and C. Tominski
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 545–570,Short summary
The paper reviews the available visualisation techniques and tools for the visual analysis of geo-physical climate networks. The results from a questionnaire with experts from non-linear physics are presented, and the paper surveys recent developments from information visualisation and cartography with respect to their applicability for visual climate network analytics. Several case studies based on own solutions illustrate the potentials of state-of-the-art network visualisation technology.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95,
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 11, 709–741,Short summary
Paleoclimate records from cave deposits allow the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of the Asian monsoon system, an important tipping element in Earth's climate. Employing recently developed techniques of nonlinear time series analysis reveals several robust and continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoonal variability. These regime shifts might have played an important role as drivers of migration, cultural change, and societal collapse during the past 10,000 years.
A. Gafurov, S. Vorogushyn, D. Farinotti, D. Duethmann, A. Merkushkin, and B. Merz
The Cryosphere, 9, 451–463,Short summary
Spatially distributed snow-cover data are available only for the recent past from remote sensing. Sometimes we need snow-cover data over a longer period for climate impact analysis for the calibration/validation of hydrological models. In this study we present a methodology to reconstruct snow cover in the past using available long-term in situ data and recently available remote sensing snow-cover data. The results show about 85% accuracy although only a limited number of stations (7) were used.
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327,Short summary
Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
T. K. D. Peron, C. H. Comin, D. R. Amancio, L. da F. Costa, F. A. Rodrigues, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1127–1132,Short summary
In the past few years, complex networks have been extensively applied to climate sciences, yielding the new field of climate networks. Here, we generalize climate network analysis by investigating the influence of altitudes in network topology. More precisely, we verified that nodes group into different communities corresponding to geographical areas with similar relief properties. This new approach may contribute to obtaining more complete climate network models.
Y. Zou, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, M. Small, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1113–1126,Short summary
We use visibility graphs to characterize asymmetries in the dynamics of sunspot areas in both solar hemispheres. Our analysis provides deep insights into the potential and limitations of this method, revealing a complex interplay between effects due to statistical versus dynamical properties of the observed data. Temporal changes in the hemispheric predominance of the graph connectivity are found to lag those directly associated with the total hemispheric sunspot areas themselves.
D. Eroglu, N. Marwan, S. Prasad, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1085–1092,
B. Goswami, J. Heitzig, K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, A. Anoop, S. Prasad, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1093–1111,Short summary
We present a new approach to estimating sedimentary proxy records along with the proxy uncertainty. We provide analytical expressions for the proxy record, while transparently propagating uncertainties from the ages to the proxy record. We represent proxies on an error-free, precise timescale. Our approach provides insight into the interrelations between proxy variability and the various uncertainties. We demonstrate our method with synthetic examples and proxy data from the Lonar lake in India.
V. Stolbova, P. Martin, B. Bookhagen, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 901–917,
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053,
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772,
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942,
K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 691–703,
L. Tupikina, K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, V. Stolbova, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 705–711,
J. M. Delgado, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1579–1589,
N. Molkenthin, K. Rehfeld, V. Stolbova, L. Tupikina, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 651–657,
J. Hlinka, D. Hartman, N. Jajcay, M. Vejmelka, R. Donner, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and M. Paluš
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 451–462,
S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 189–208,
K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 10, 107–122,
S. Vorogushyn and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3871–3884,
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3127–3140,
N. V. Manh, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3039–3057,
N. Itoh and N. Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 467–481,
D. Duethmann, J. Zimmer, A. Gafurov, A. Güntner, D. Kriegel, B. Merz, and S. Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2415–2434,
M. Nied, Y. Hundecha, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1401–1414,
S. Uhlemann, R. Bertelmann, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 895–911,
N. V. Dung, B. Merz, A. Bárdossy, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Merz, H. Kreibich, and U. Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 53–64,
Related subject area
Subject: Time series, machine learning, networks, stochastic processes, extreme events | Topic: Climate, atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere | Techniques: TheoryA waveform skewness index for measuring time series nonlinearity and its applications to the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationshipEmpirical evidence of a fluctuation theorem for the wind mechanical power input into the oceanBeyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fieldsVertical profiles of wind gust statistics from a regional reanalysis using multivariate extreme value theoryOn fluctuating momentum exchange in idealised models of air–sea interaction
Justin Schulte, Frederick Policelli, and Benjamin Zaitchik
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 1–15,Short summary
The skewness of a time series is commonly used to quantify the extent to which positive (negative) deviations from the mean are larger than negative (positive) ones. However, in some cases, traditional skewness may not provide reliable information about time series skewness, motivating the development of a waveform skewness index in this paper. The waveform skewness index is used to show that changes in the relationship strength between climate time series could arise from changes in skewness.
Achim Wirth and Bertrand Chapron
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 371–378,Short summary
In non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, which describes forced-dissipative systems such as air–sea interaction, there is no universal probability density function (pdf). Some such systems have recently been demonstrated to exhibit a symmetry called a fluctuation theorem (FT), which strongly constrains the shape of the pdf. Using satellite data, the mechanical power input to the ocean by air–sea interaction following or not a FT is questioned. A FT is found to apply over specific ocean regions.
Josh Jacobson, William Kleiber, Michael Scheuerer, and Joseph Bellier
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 411–427,Short summary
Most verification metrics for ensemble forecasts assess the representation of uncertainty at a particular location and time. We study a new diagnostic tool based on fractions of threshold exceedance (FTE) which evaluates an additional important attribute: the ability of ensemble forecast fields to reproduce the spatial structure of observed fields. The utility of this diagnostic tool is demonstrated through simulations and an application to ensemble precipitation forecasts.
Julian Steinheuer and Petra Friederichs
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 239–252,Short summary
Many applications require wind gust estimates at very different atmospheric altitudes, such as in the wind energy sector. However, numerical weather prediction models usually only derive estimates for gusts at 10 m above the land surface. We present a statistical model that gives the hourly peak wind speed. The model is trained based on a weather reanalysis and observations from the Hamburg Weather Mast. Reliable predictions are derived at up to 250 m, even at unobserved intermediate levels.
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 457–477,Short summary
The conspicuous feature of the atmosphere–ocean system is the large difference in the masses of the two media. In this respect there is a strong analogy to Brownian motion, with light and fast molecules colliding with heavy and slow Brownian particles. I apply the tools of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics for studying Brownian motion to air–sea interaction.
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