Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1113-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1113-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Nov 2014
Research article |
| 24 Nov 2014
Long-term changes in the north–south asymmetry of solar activity: a nonlinear dynamics characterization using visibility graphs
Y. Zou
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics, East China Normal University, 200062 Shanghai, China
State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
R. V. Donner
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
N. Marwan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
M. Small
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
J. Kurths
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, 12489 Berlin, Germany
Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB243UE, UK
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Irewola Aaron Oludehinwa, Andrei Velichko, Olasunkanmi Isaac Olusola, Olawale Segun Bolaji, Norbert Marwan, Babalola Olasupo Ogunsua, Abdullahi Ndzi Njah, and Timothy Oluwaseyi Ologun
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 225–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-225-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-225-2025, 2025
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The contributing influence of SSWs (sudden stratospheric warming) on regional ionosphere through chaos theory is examined. We find that ionospheric chaos is more pronounced in the European sector compared to the African sector during an SSW. Evidence of orderliness behavior in regional ionosphere of African sector is observed. Finally, we notice that after the peak phase of an SSW, ionospheric chaos is found to be more pronounced.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Adarsh Jojo Thomas, Jürgen Kurths, and Daniel Schertzer
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 131–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-131-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-131-2025, 2025
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We have developed a systematic approach to study the climate system at multiple scales using climate networks, which have been previously used to study correlations between time series in space at only a single scale. This new approach is used to upscale precipitation climate networks to study the Indian summer monsoon and to analyze strong dependencies between spatial regions, which change with changing scales.
Noemie Ehstand, Reik V. Donner, Cristobal Lopez, Marcelo Barreiro, and Emilio Hernandez-Garcia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-343, 2025
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The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale tropical wave of enhanced and suppressed rainfalls, slowly moving eastward at the equator, influencing the weather and climate globally. We study the MJO using a simplified model designed to capture its large-scale features. We introduce new, more realistic, inputs into the model, show that this enhanced model successfully replicates key characteristics of the MJO, and identify some of its limitations.
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Giorgia Di Capua, Leonard F. Borchert, Reik V. Donner, and Johanna Baehr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1561–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024, 2024
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We demonstrate with a causal analysis that an important recurrent summer atmospheric pattern, the so-called East Atlantic teleconnection, was influenced by the extratropical North Atlantic in spring during the second half of the 20th century. This causal link is, however, not well represented by our evaluated seasonal climate prediction system. We show that simulations able to reproduce this link show improved surface climate prediction credibility over those that do not.
David Docquier, Giorgia Di Capua, Reik V. Donner, Carlos A. L. Pires, Amélie Simon, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024, 2024
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Identifying causes of specific processes is crucial in order to better understand our climate system. Traditionally, correlation analyses have been used to identify cause–effect relationships in climate studies. However, correlation does not imply causation, which justifies the need to use causal methods. We compare two independent causal methods and show that these are superior to classical correlation analyses. We also find some interesting differences between the two methods.
Giorgia Di Capua, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Antje Weisheimer, Andrew G. Turner, and Reik V. Donner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 701–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, 2023
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Heavy rainfall in tropical regions interacts with mid-latitude circulation patterns, and this interaction can explain weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. In this analysis we detect these tropical–extratropical interaction pattern both in observational datasets and data obtained by atmospheric models and assess how well atmospheric models can reproduce the observed patterns. We find a good agreement although these relationships are weaker in model data.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
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Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Domenico Giaquinto, Warner Marzocchi, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 167–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-167-2023, 2023
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Despite being among the most severe climate extremes, it is still challenging to assess droughts’ features for specific regions. In this paper we study meteorological droughts in Europe using concepts derived from climate network theory. By exploring the synchronization in droughts occurrences across the continent we unveil regional clusters which are individually examined to identify droughts’ geographical propagation and source–sink systems, which could potentially support droughts’ forecast.
Renee van Dongen, Dirk Scherler, Dadiyorto Wendi, Eric Deal, Luca Mao, Norbert Marwan, and Claudio I. Meier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1234, 2022
Preprint archived
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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that causes abnormal climatic conditions in Chile. We investigated how ENSO affects catchment hydrology and found strong seasonal and spatial differences in the hydrological response to ENSO which was caused by different hydrological processes in catchments that are dominated by snowmelt-generated runoff or rainfall-generated runoff. These results are relevant for water resources management and ENSO mitigation in Chile.
Cinthya Esther Nava Fernandez, Tobias Braun, Bethany Fox, Adam Hartland, Ola Kwiecien, Chelsea Pederson, Sebastian Hoepker, Stefano Bernasconi, Madalina Jaggi, John Hellstrom, Fernando Gázquez, Amanda French, Norbert Marwan, Adrian Immenhauser, and Sebastian Franz Martin Breitenbach
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-172, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We provide a ca. 1000 year long (6.4–5.4 ka BP) stalagmite-based reconstruction of mid-Holocene rainfall variability in the tropical western Pacific. The annually laminated multi-proxy (δ13C, δ18O, X/Ca, gray values) record comes from Niue island and informs on El Nino-Southern Oscillation and South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics. Our data suggest that ENSO was active and influenced rainfall seasonality over the covered time interval. Rainfall seasonality was subdued during active ENSO phases
Tommaso Alberti, Reik V. Donner, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 837–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, 2021
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We provide a novel approach to diagnose the strength of the ocean–atmosphere coupling by using both a reduced order model and reanalysis data. Our findings suggest the ocean–atmosphere dynamics presents a rich variety of features, moving from a chaotic to a coherent coupled dynamics, mainly attributed to the atmosphere and only marginally to the ocean. Our observations suggest further investigations in characterizing the occurrence and spatial dependency of the ocean–atmosphere coupling.
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
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In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Abhirup Banerjee, Bedartha Goswami, Yoshito Hirata, Deniz Eroglu, Bruno Merz, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 213–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, 2021
Frederik Wolf, Aiko Voigt, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, 2021
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In our work, we employ complex networks to study the relation between the time mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We show that the information hidden in different spatial SST correlation patterns, which we access utilizing complex networks, is strongly correlated with the time mean position of the ITCZ. This research contributes to the ongoing discussion on drivers of the annual migration of the ITCZ.
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021
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Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System employing a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High as the main drivers, which have been assumed to be independent previously.
Giorgia Di Capua, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 519–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, 2020
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We study the interactions between the tropical convective activity and the mid-latitude circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. We identify two circumglobal wave patterns with phase shifts corresponding to the South Asian and the western North Pacific monsoon systems at an intra-seasonal timescale. These patterns show two-way interactions in a causal framework at a weekly timescale and assess how El Niño affects these interactions.
Daniel Tesfay, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng, Pingyuan Wei, Jinqiao Duan, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-31, 2020
Publication in NPG not foreseen
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For more than a decade, the climate has attracted stochastic dynamists with its unpredictable and complex phenomena. Our attention was attracted by the results of studies on the possibility of oceanic thermohaline circulation failure. We set the task to analyze the stability of the circulation current on-state and to predetermine what extreme events can unbalance it leading to attenuation. We also suggested possible scenarios for the resuscitation of the circulation in the event of its fading.
Cinthya Nava-Fernandez, Adam Hartland, Fernando Gázquez, Ola Kwiecien, Norbert Marwan, Bethany Fox, John Hellstrom, Andrew Pearson, Brittany Ward, Amanda French, David A. Hodell, Adrian Immenhauser, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3361–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3361-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3361-2020, 2020
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Speleothems are powerful archives of past climate for understanding modern local hydrology and its relation to regional circulation patterns. We use a 3-year monitoring dataset to test the sensitivity of Waipuna Cave to seasonal changes and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Drip water data suggest a fast response to rainfall events; its elemental composition reflects a seasonal cycle and ENSO variability. Waipuna Cave speleothems have a high potential for past ENSO reconstructions.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Ugur Ozturk, Jürgen Kurths, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, 2020
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In the climate/hydrology network, each node represents a geographical location of climatological data, and links between nodes are set up based on their interaction or similar variability. Here, using network theory, we first generate a node-ranking measure and then prioritize the rain gauges to identify influential and expandable stations across Germany. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, we also compared the results with existing traditional and contemporary network measures.
Jaqueline Lekscha and Reik V. Donner
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 261–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-261-2020, 2020
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, 2020
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Drivers from both the mid-latitudes and the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Markus Drüke, Matthias Forkel, Werner von Bloh, Boris Sakschewski, Manoel Cardoso, Mercedes Bustamante, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5029–5054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019, 2019
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This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the implementation of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model. We have demonstrated a major improvement in the fire representation within LPJmL4-SPITFIRE in terms of the spatial pattern and the interannual variability of burned area in South America as well as in the modelling of biomass and the distribution of plant types.
Jürgen Kurths, Ankit Agarwal, Roopam Shukla, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Levke Caesar, Raghavan Krishnan, and Bruno Merz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, 2019
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We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different timescales, first by identifying homogeneous communities and later by computing non-linear linkages between the identified communities (spatial regions) and dominant climatic patterns, represented by climatic indices such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-11, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Both drivers from the mid-latitudes and from the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Tim Kittel, Catrin Ciemer, Nastaran Lotfi, Thomas Peron, Francisco Rodrigues, Jürgen Kurths, and Reik V. Donner
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2017-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2017-69, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Jasper G. Franke, Johannes P. Werner, and Reik V. Donner
Clim. Past, 13, 1593–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1593-2017, 2017
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We apply evolving functional network analysis, a tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure, to a set of
Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to
long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We obtain a
qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era.
Lukas Baumbach, Jonatan F. Siegmund, Magdalena Mittermeier, and Reik V. Donner
Biogeosciences, 14, 4891–4903, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4891-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4891-2017, 2017
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Temperature extremes play a crucial role for vegetation growth and vitality in vast parts of the European continent. Here, we study the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperatures and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for three main periods during the growing season. Our results reveal a particularly high vulnerability of croplands to temperature extremes, while other vegetation types are considerably less affected.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Bruno Merz, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 599–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, 2017
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Extreme events such as floods and droughts result from synchronization of different natural processes working at multiple timescales. Investigation on an observation timescale will not reveal the inherent underlying dynamics triggering these events. This paper develops a new method based on wavelets and event synchronization to unravel the hidden dynamics responsible for such sudden events. This method is tested with synthetic and real-world cases and the results are promising.
Finn Müller-Hansen, Manoel F. Cardoso, Eloi L. Dalla-Nora, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, 2017
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Deforestation and subsequent land uses in the Brazilian Amazon have huge impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, local climate and biodiversity. To better understand these land-cover changes, we apply complex systems methods uncovering spatial patterns in regional transition probabilities between land-cover types, which we estimate using maps derived from satellite imagery. The results show clusters of similar land-cover dynamics and thus complement studies at the local scale.
Jonatan F. Siegmund, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, and Reik V. Donner
Biogeosciences, 13, 5541–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016, 2016
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In this study we systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of flowering of four shrub species across Germany by using event coincidence analysis. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies, highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. Additionally, the analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the fall preceding the flowering.
T. Nocke, S. Buschmann, J. F. Donges, N. Marwan, H.-J. Schulz, and C. Tominski
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 545–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, 2015
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The paper reviews the available visualisation techniques and tools for the visual analysis of geo-physical climate networks. The results from a questionnaire with experts from non-linear physics are presented, and the paper surveys recent developments from information visualisation and cartography with respect to their applicability for visual climate network analytics. Several case studies based on own solutions illustrate the potentials of state-of-the-art network visualisation technology.
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 11, 709–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, 2015
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Paleoclimate records from cave deposits allow the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of the Asian monsoon system, an important tipping element in Earth's climate. Employing recently developed techniques of nonlinear time series analysis reveals several robust and continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoonal variability. These regime shifts might have played an important role as drivers of migration, cultural change, and societal collapse during the past 10,000 years.
T. K. D. Peron, C. H. Comin, D. R. Amancio, L. da F. Costa, F. A. Rodrigues, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1127–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1127-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1127-2014, 2014
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In the past few years, complex networks have been extensively applied to climate sciences, yielding
the new field of climate networks. Here, we generalize climate network analysis by investigating the influence of altitudes in network topology. More precisely, we verified that nodes group into different communities corresponding to geographical areas with similar relief properties. This new approach may contribute to obtaining more complete climate network models.
D. Eroglu, N. Marwan, S. Prasad, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1085–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1085-2014, 2014
B. Goswami, J. Heitzig, K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, A. Anoop, S. Prasad, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1093–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014, 2014
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We present a new approach to estimating sedimentary proxy records along with the proxy uncertainty. We provide analytical expressions for the proxy record, while transparently propagating uncertainties from the ages to the proxy record. We represent proxies on an error-free, precise timescale. Our approach provides insight into the interrelations between proxy variability and the various uncertainties. We demonstrate our method with synthetic examples and proxy data from the Lonar lake in India.
V. Stolbova, P. Martin, B. Bookhagen, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-901-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-901-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 691–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-691-2014, 2014
L. Tupikina, K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, V. Stolbova, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 705–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-705-2014, 2014
N. Molkenthin, K. Rehfeld, V. Stolbova, L. Tupikina, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 651–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-651-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-651-2014, 2014
J. Hlinka, D. Hartman, N. Jajcay, M. Vejmelka, R. Donner, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and M. Paluš
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 451–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-451-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-451-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 10, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, 2014
R. V. Donner and G. Balasis
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 965–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-965-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-965-2013, 2013
N. Itoh and N. Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 467–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-467-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-467-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Time series, machine learning, networks, stochastic processes, extreme events | Topic: Ionosphere, magnetosphere, planetary science, solar science
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Quantification of magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling timescales using mutual information: response of terrestrial radio emissions and ionospheric–magnetospheric currents
Nonlinear vortex solution for perturbations in the Earth's ionosphere
The physics of space weather/solar-terrestrial physics (STP): what we know now and what the current and future challenges are
Complex network description of the ionosphere
Evolution of fractality in space plasmas of interest to geomagnetic activity
Satellite drag effects due to uplifted oxygen neutrals during super magnetic storms
Characterization of high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events using recurrence quantification analysis
Spectral characteristics of high-latitude raw 40 MHz cosmic noise signals
Nonlinear fluctuation analysis for a set of 41 magnetic clouds measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft
Complexity signatures in the geomagnetic H component recorded by the Tromsø magnetometer (70° N, 19° E) over the last quarter of a century
Can irregularities of solar proxies help understand quasi-biennial solar variations?
Fernando L. Guarnieri, Bruce T. Tsurutani, Rajkumar Hajra, Ezequiel Echer, and Gurbax S. Lakhina
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 75–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-75-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-75-2025, 2025
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On February 03 2022, SpaceX launched a new group of satellites for its Starlink constellation. This launch simultaneously released 49 satellites into orbits between 200 km and 250 km height. The launches occurred during a geomagnetic storm that was followed by a second storm. There was an immediate loss of 32 satellites. The satellite losses may have been caused by an unusually high level of atmospheric drag (unexplained by current theory or modeling) or a high level of satellite collisions.
Venla Koikkalainen, Emilia Kilpua, Simon Good, and Adnane Osmane
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-106, 2025
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We study time series of solar wind large-scale structures (magnetic clouds, sheaths, slow and fast streams). These have profound importance for causing disturbances in the heliospheric conditions and driving space weather on Earth. The used techniques include methods deriving from information theory to determine entropy and complexity. We find that all of these techniques show stochastic fluctuations, but magnetic clouds stand out due to their coherent magnetic field
Alexandra Ruth Fogg, Caitríona M. Jackman, Sandra C. Chapman, James E. Waters, Aisling Bergin, Laurent Lamy, Karine Issautier, Baptiste Cecconi, and Xavier Bonnin
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 195–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-195-2024, 2024
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Auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) is a radio emission emitted by Earth. Due to the complex mixture of phenomena in the magnetosphere, it is tricky to estimate the time difference between the excitation of two systems. In this study, AKR is compared with indices describing Earth's system. Time differences between the excitation of AKR and the indices are estimated using mutual information. AKR feels an enhancement before the aurora but after more polar latitude features.
Miroslava Vukcevic and Luka Č. Popović
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 295–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-295-2020, 2020
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The soliton vortex two-dimensional solution has been derived for the ionosphere. Why are solitons so important? The advantage of an analytical soliton solution is its localization in space and time as a consequence of balance between nonlinearity and dispersion. One very good example of the balance between nonlinear and dispersive effects is tsunami, a surface gravity one-dimensional wave that can propagate with constant velocity and constant amplitude when it is assured by a parameter regime.
Bruce T. Tsurutani, Gurbax S. Lakhina, and Rajkumar Hajra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 75–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-75-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-75-2020, 2020
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Current space weather problems are discussed for young researchers. We have discussed some of the major problems that need to be solved for space weather forecasting to become a reality.
Shikun Lu, Hao Zhang, Xihai Li, Yihong Li, Chao Niu, Xiaoyun Yang, and Daizhi Liu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 233–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-233-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-233-2018, 2018
Víctor Muñoz, Macarena Domínguez, Juan Alejandro Valdivia, Simon Good, Giuseppina Nigro, and Vincenzo Carbone
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 207–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-207-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-207-2018, 2018
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Fractals are self-similar objects (which look the same at all scales), whose dimensions can be noninteger. They are mathematical concepts, useful to describe various physical systems, as the fractal dimension is a measure of their complexity. In this paper we study how these concepts can be applied to some problems in space plasmas, such as the activity of the Earth's magnetosphere, simulations of plasma turbulence, or identification of magnetic structures ejected from the Sun.
Gurbax S. Lakhina and Bruce T. Tsurutani
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 745–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-745-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-745-2017, 2017
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A preliminary estimate of the drag force per unit mass on typical low-Earth-orbiting satellites moving through the ionosphere during Carrington-type super magnetic storms is calculated by a simple first-order model which takes into account the ion-neutral drag between the upward-moving oxygen ions and O neutral atoms. It is shown that oxygen ions and atoms can be uplifted to 850 km altitude, where they produce about 40 times more satellite drag per unit mass than normal.
Odim Mendes, Margarete Oliveira Domingues, Ezequiel Echer, Rajkumar Hajra, and Varlei Everton Menconi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 407–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-407-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-407-2017, 2017
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The effects of the Sun upon the Earth's atmosphere occur in several ways. Significant electrodynamic coupling processes transfer particles and energy from the solar wind into the Earth's environment. Applied to the dynamical characteristics of high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) and non-HILDCAA events, nonlinear analysis tools like RQA aid to unravel peculiarities related to two concurrent space mechanisms known as magnetic reconnection and viscous interaction.
Chris M. Hall
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 215–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-215-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-215-2016, 2016
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The relative ionospheric opacity meter ("riometer") is a traditional instrument for measuring the degree to which cosmic noise is absorbed by the ionosphere and therefore how energetic the particles – electrons, protons etc. – are that cause the ionisation. We identify the same signatures in the "hour-to-days" timescale variability as reported in solar and geomagnetic disturbances. The result demonstrates the relationship between riometer data and the underlying physics for different timescales.
A. Ojeda González, W. D. Gonzalez, O. Mendes, M. O. Domingues, and R. R. Rosa
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1059–1073, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1059-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1059-2014, 2014
C. M. Hall
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1051–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1051-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1051-2014, 2014
A. Shapoval, J. L. Le Mouël, M. Shnirman, and V. Courtillot
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 797–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-797-2014, 2014
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Short summary
We use visibility graphs to characterize asymmetries in the dynamics of sunspot areas in both solar hemispheres. Our analysis provides deep insights into the potential and limitations of this method, revealing a complex interplay between effects due to statistical versus dynamical properties of the observed data. Temporal changes in the hemispheric predominance of the graph connectivity are found to lag those directly associated with the total hemispheric sunspot areas themselves.
We use visibility graphs to characterize asymmetries in the dynamics of sunspot areas in both...
