The stochastic skeleton model for the  Madden–Julian Oscillation with  time-dependent observation-based forcing

Ehstand, Noémie; Donner, Reik V.; López, Cristóbal; Barreiro, Marcelo; Hernández-García, Emilio

doi:10.5194/npg-32-367-2025

Articles | Volume 32, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 32, issue 4

Research article

|

06 Oct 2025

Research article |

| 06 Oct 2025

The stochastic skeleton model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation with time-dependent observation-based forcing

Noémie Ehstand, Reik V. Donner, Cristóbal López, Marcelo Barreiro, and Emilio Hernández-García

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Feb 2025	90	16	8	114
Mar 2025	118	24	4	146
Apr 2025	52	12	4	68
May 2025	50	24	6	80
Jun 2025	42	28	10	80
Jul 2025	42	14	2	58
Aug 2025	266	12	2	280
Sep 2025	1,020	18	20	1,058
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Nov 2025	137	49	9	195
Dec 2025	178	34	18	230
Jan 2026	455	49	13	517
Feb 2026	486	36	16	538
Mar 2026	162	33	7	202
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May 2026	269	10	9	288
Jun 2026	33	7	1	41

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Feb 2025)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2025	90	16	8	114
Mar 2025	118	24	4	146
Apr 2025	52	12	4	68
May 2025	50	24	6	80
Jun 2025	42	28	10	80
Jul 2025	42	14	2	58
Aug 2025	266	12	2	280
Sep 2025	1,020	18	20	1,058
Oct 2025	234	51	22	307
Nov 2025	137	49	9	195
Dec 2025	178	34	18	230
Jan 2026	455	49	13	517
Feb 2026	486	36	16	538
Mar 2026	162	33	7	202
Apr 2026	156	24	8	188
May 2026	269	10	9	288
Jun 2026	33	7	1	41

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Short summary

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale tropical wave of enhanced and suppressed rainfall, slowly moving eastward along the equator and influencing the weather and climate globally. We study the MJO using a simplified model designed to capture its large-scale features. We introduce new, more realistic model inputs, show that this enhanced model successfully replicates key characteristics of the MJO, and identify some of its limitations.