Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2025

The stochastic skeleton model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation with time-dependent observation-based forcing

Noémie Ehstand, Reik V. Donner, Cristóbal López, Marcelo Barreiro, and Emilio Hernández-García

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Cited articles

Adler, R., Wang, J.-J., Sapiano, M., Huffman, G., Chiu, L., Xie, P. P., Ferraro, R., Schneider, U., Becker, A., Bolvin, D., Nelkin, E., Gu, G., and NOAA CDR Program: Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Climate Data Record (CDR), Version 2.3 (Monthly), National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V56971M6 (last access: 18 April 2023), 2016. a, b
Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index Data, Australian Bureau of Meteorology [data set], http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ (last access: 12 June 2023), 2023. a, b
Chen, G. and Wang, B.: Circulation Factors Determining the Propagation Speed of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, J. Climate, 33, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0661.1, 2020. a
Chen, S. and Stechmann, S. N.: Nonlinear traveling waves for the skeleton of the Madden–Julian oscillation, Commun. Math. Sci., 14, 571–592, https://doi.org/10.4310/cms.2016.v14.n2.a11, 2016. a, b
Corral, A., Minjares, M., and Barreiro, M.: Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian oscillation after about 27 days, Phys. Rev. E, 108, 054214, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.108.054214, 2023. a
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Short summary
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale tropical wave of enhanced and suppressed rainfall, slowly moving eastward along the equator and influencing the weather and climate globally. We study the MJO using a simplified model designed to capture its large-scale features. We introduce new, more realistic model inputs, show that this enhanced model successfully replicates key characteristics of the MJO, and identify some of its limitations.
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