The stochastic skeleton model for the  Madden–Julian Oscillation with  time-dependent observation-based forcing

Ehstand, Noémie; Donner, Reik V.; López, Cristóbal; Barreiro, Marcelo; Hernández-García, Emilio

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025

Articles | Volume 32, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-367-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 32, issue 4

Research article

|

06 Oct 2025

Research article |

| 06 Oct 2025

The stochastic skeleton model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation with time-dependent observation-based forcing

Noémie Ehstand, Reik V. Donner, Cristóbal López, Marcelo Barreiro, and Emilio Hernández-García

Data sets

The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html) E. Kalnay et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:tnyrp>2.0.co;2

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Climate Data Record (CDR), Version 2.3 (Monthly) R. Adler et al. https://doi.org/10.7289/V56971M6

Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index Data Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Monthly Niño-3.4 Index NOAA https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml

Model code and software

Code and data for the stochastic skeleton model of the Madden-Julian oscilation with time-dependent observation-based forcing Noemie Ehstand https://doi.org/10.20350/digitalCSIC/17017

Short summary

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale tropical wave of enhanced and suppressed rainfall, slowly moving eastward along the equator and influencing the weather and climate globally. We study the MJO using a simplified model designed to capture its large-scale features. We introduce new, more realistic model inputs, show that this enhanced model successfully replicates key characteristics of the MJO, and identify some of its limitations.