Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-49-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Research article
 | 
07 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 07 Feb 2023

On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics

Joshua Dorrington and Tim Palmer

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Cited articles

Altmann, E. G. and Endler, A.: Noise-enhanced trapping in chaotic scattering, Phys. Rev. Lett., 105, 244102, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.105.244102, 2010. a, b, c, d
Berner, J., Jung, T., and Palmer, T. N.: Systematic Model Error: The Impact of Increased Horizontal Resolution versus Improved Stochastic and Deterministic Parameterizations, J. Climate, 25, 4946–4962, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00297.1, 2012. a
Branstator, G.: Circumglobal Teleconnections, the Jet Stream Waveguide, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Tech. Rep., 14, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1893:CTTJSW>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Cehelsky, P. and Tung, K. K.: Theories of multiple equilibria and weather regimes – a critical reexamination. Part II: baroclinic two-layer models, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 3282–3303, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<3282:TOMEAW>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a
Champneys, A. R. and Kirk, V.: The entwined wiggling of homoclinic curves emerging from saddle-node/Hopf instabilities, Physica D, 195, 77–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2004.03.004, 2004. a
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Atmospheric models often include random forcings, which aim to replicate the impact of processes too small to be resolved. Recent results in simple atmospheric models suggest that this random forcing can actually stabilise certain slow-varying aspects of the system, which could provide a path for resolving known errors in our models. We use randomly forced simulations of a toy chaotic system and theoretical arguments to explain why this strange effect occurs – at least in simple models.
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