Articles | Volume 30, issue 1
Research article
09 Jan 2023
Research article |  | 09 Jan 2023

Weather pattern dynamics over western Europe under climate change: predictability, information entropy and production

Stéphane Vannitsem

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Subject: Predictability, probabilistic forecasts, data assimilation, inverse problems | Topic: Climate, atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere | Techniques: Big data and artificial intelligence
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Cited articles

Allen, S.: Advanced statistical post-processing of ensemble weather forecasts, PhD thesis, University of Exeter, (last access: 2 January 2023), 2021. a, b
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Basios, V., Oikonomou, Th., and De Gernier, R.: Symbolic dynamics of music from Europe and Japan, Chaos, 31, 053122,, 2021. a
Bilingsley, P.: Statistical methods in Markov chains, Ann. Math. Stat., 32, 12–40,, 1961. a
Short summary
The impact of climate change on weather pattern dynamics over the North Atlantic is explored through the lens of information theory. These tools allow the predictability of the succession of weather patterns and the irreversible nature of the dynamics to be clarified. It is shown that the predictability is increasing in the observations, while the opposite trend is found in model projections. The irreversibility displays an overall increase in time in both the observations and the model runs.