Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 2
Articles | Volume 33, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-233-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-233-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 2
Research article
 | 
28 May 2026
Research article |  | 28 May 2026

Boosting ensembles for statistics of tails at conditionally optimal advance split times

Justin Finkel and Paul A. O'Gorman

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Short summary
Estimating small probabilities of high-impact extreme weather events is a persistent computational challenge, motivating techniques such as rare event sampling and ensemble boosting: lightly perturbing simulated moderate events into more extreme ones. We formulate a new, flexible sampling strategy and characterizes a critical parameter – the advance split time, dictating when to perturb – in a simple atmospheric turbulence model, with generalizable entropy-based criteria.
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