Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Bottom–up approach for mitigating extreme events with limited intervention options: a case study with Lorenz 96 model
Faculty of Health Data Science, Juntendo Univerity, Urayasu, Japan
Shunji Kotsuki
Institute for Advanced Academic Research, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
Naoya Fujiwara
Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
Atsushi Okazaki
Institute for Advanced Academic Research, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
Keita Tokuda
Faculty of Health Data Science, Juntendo Univerity, Urayasu, Japan
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Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
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Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
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Short summary
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a testbed, we propose a bottom-up approach to mitigate extreme events via local interventions guided by multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. Unlike control-theoretic methods, our approach selects the best control scenario from available options. It achieves a high success rate of 99.4% while maintaining reasonable costs, offering a practical strategy to reduce extremes under limited control.
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a...