Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Bottom–up approach for mitigating extreme events with limited intervention options: a case study with Lorenz 96 model
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- Final revised paper (published on 04 Nov 2025)
- Preprint (discussion started on 21 Mar 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-987', Qin Huang, 23 Apr 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Takahito Mitsui, 15 May 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-987', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 May 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Takahito Mitsui, 15 May 2025
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Takahito Mitsui on behalf of the Authors (14 Jun 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Jul 2025) by Natale Alberto Carrassi
RR by Qin Huang (23 Jul 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (13 Aug 2025)
ED: Publish as is (15 Sep 2025) by Natale Alberto Carrassi
AR by Takahito Mitsui on behalf of the Authors (25 Sep 2025)
Manuscript
Post-review adjustments
AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval
AA by Takahito Mitsui on behalf of the Authors (20 Oct 2025)
Author's adjustment
Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (03 Nov 2025) by Natale Alberto Carrassi
General Comments:
This manuscript demonstrates successful mitigation of extreme events in the Lorenz 96 (L96) model by applying localized interventions. Building upon the work of Sun et al. (2023) on control simulation experiments using LETKF-based data assimilation, the authors develop a control algorithm that selects intervention sites based on multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. The results show significantly improved success rates in reducing extremes - from approximately 60% in Sun et al. (2023) to 94% for one-site interventions and 99.4% for two-site interventions - with robustness demonstrated through sensitivity analyses of the success-cost trade-off. By focusing on limited and spatially constrained interventions, this work advances the feasibility of controlling chaotic systems under realistic operational constraints. As a radically new area of research in extreme weather control, this study represents a compelling step forward.
Specific Comments:
Overall, these suggestions are meant as optional additions - the manuscript is already very complete and well-structured. Including a bit more comparative context could further enhance clarity for readers unfamiliar with the broader control and data assimilation literature.
Technical Correction:
No technical correction suggested.