Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 04 Nov 2025

Bottom–up approach for mitigating extreme events with limited intervention options: a case study with Lorenz 96 model

Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-987', Qin Huang, 23 Apr 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Takahito Mitsui, 15 May 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-987', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 May 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Takahito Mitsui, 15 May 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Takahito Mitsui on behalf of the Authors (14 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Jul 2025) by Natale Alberto Carrassi
RR by Qin Huang (23 Jul 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (13 Aug 2025)
ED: Publish as is (15 Sep 2025) by Natale Alberto Carrassi
AR by Takahito Mitsui on behalf of the Authors (25 Sep 2025)  Manuscript 

Post-review adjustments

AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval
AA by Takahito Mitsui on behalf of the Authors (20 Oct 2025)   Author's adjustment   Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (03 Nov 2025) by Natale Alberto Carrassi
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Short summary
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a testbed, we propose a bottom-up approach to mitigate extreme events via local interventions guided by multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. Unlike control-theoretic methods, our approach selects the best control scenario from available options. It achieves a high success rate of 99.4% while maintaining reasonable costs, offering a practical strategy to reduce extremes under limited control.
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