Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
Research article
 | 
04 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 04 Nov 2025

Bottom–up approach for mitigating extreme events with limited intervention options: a case study with Lorenz 96 model

Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda

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Short summary
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a testbed, we propose a bottom-up approach to mitigate extreme events via local interventions guided by multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. Unlike control-theoretic methods, our approach selects the best control scenario from available options. It achieves a high success rate of 99.4% while maintaining reasonable costs, offering a practical strategy to reduce extremes under limited control.
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