Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-457-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 04 Nov 2025

Bottom–up approach for mitigating extreme events with limited intervention options: a case study with Lorenz 96 model

Takahito Mitsui, Shunji Kotsuki, Naoya Fujiwara, Atsushi Okazaki, and Keita Tokuda

Model code and software

Codes for the paper Mitsui et al. Nonlin. Processes. Geophys. (2025) Takahito Mitsui https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17196786

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Short summary
Extreme weather poses serious risks, making prevention crucial. Using the Lorenz 96 model as a testbed, we propose a bottom-up approach to mitigate extreme events via local interventions guided by multi-scenario ensemble forecasts. Unlike control-theoretic methods, our approach selects the best control scenario from available options. It achieves a high success rate of 99.4% while maintaining reasonable costs, offering a practical strategy to reduce extremes under limited control.
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