Articles | Volume 29, issue 2
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 183–205, 2022

Special issue: Centennial issue on nonlinear geophysics: accomplishments...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 183–205, 2022
Research article
 | Highlight paper
11 May 2022
Research article  | Highlight paper | 11 May 2022

Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model

Valerio Lucarini et al.

Related authors

Meridional energy transport extremes and the general circulation of NH mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss.,,, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for WCD
Short summary
Inferring the instability of a dynamical system from the skill of data assimilation exercises
Yumeng Chen, Alberto Carrassi, and Valerio Lucarini
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 633–649,,, 2021
Short summary
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438,,, 2020
Short summary
TheDiaTo (v1.0) – a new diagnostic tool for water, energy and entropy budgets in climate models
Valerio Lembo, Frank Lunkeit, and Valerio Lucarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3805–3834,,, 2019
Short summary
Lyapunov analysis of multiscale dynamics: the slow bundle of the two-scale Lorenz 96 model
Mallory Carlu, Francesco Ginelli, Valerio Lucarini, and Antonio Politi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 73–89,,, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Time series, machine learning, networks, stochastic processes, extreme events | Topic: Climate, atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere | Techniques: Simulation
Direct Bayesian model reduction of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large-scale dynamics
Robert Polzin, Annette Müller, Henning Rust, Peter Névir, and Péter Koltai
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 37–52,,, 2022
Short summary
The Empirical Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition (EAWD): An adaptive decomposition for the variability analysis of observation time series in atmospheric science
Olivier Delage, Thierry Portafaix, Hassan Bencherif, Alain Bourdier, and Emma Lagracie
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.,,, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NPG
Short summary
Improvements to the use of the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Sampling algorithm for the study of rare events
Pascal Wang, Daniele Castellana, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 135–151,,, 2021
Short summary
Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods
Sebastian Lerch, Sándor Baran, Annette Möller, Jürgen Groß, Roman Schefzik, Stephan Hemri, and Maximiliane Graeter
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 349–371,,, 2020
Short summary
A prototype stochastic parameterization of regime behaviour in the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer
Carsten Abraham, Amber M. Holdsworth, and Adam H. Monahan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 401–427,,, 2019
Short summary

Cited articles

Abbot, D. S., Voigt, A., and Koll, D.: The Jormungand global climate state and implications for Neoproterozoic glaciations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D18103,, 2011. a
Alharbi, R.: Nonlinear parabolic stochastic partial differential equation with application to finance, Doctoral thesis (PhD), University of Sussex, Brighton, (last access:5 May 2022), 2021. a, b
Alkhayuon, H., Ashwin, P., Jackson, L. C., Quinn, C., and Wood, R. A.: Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model, P. Roy. Soc. A-Math. Phy., 475, 20190051,, 2019. a
Applebaum, D.: Lévy Processes and Stochastic Calculus, Cambridge Studies in Advanced Mathematics, 2nd edn., Cambridge University Press,, 2009. a, b
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184,, 2012. a
Short summary
In most of the investigations on metastable systems, the stochastic forcing is modulated by Gaussian noise. Lévy noise laws, which describe jump processes, have recently received a lot of attention, but much less is known. We study stochastic versions of the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model, and we highlight the fundamental difference between how transitions are performed between the competing warm and snowball states, depending on whether Gaussian or Lévy noise acts as forcing.