Articles | Volume 27, issue 3
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 411–427, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020

Special issue: Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic...

Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 411–427, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020

Research article 31 Aug 2020

Research article | 31 Aug 2020

Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields

Josh Jacobson et al.

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Latest update: 15 Jun 2021
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Short summary
Most verification metrics for ensemble forecasts assess the representation of uncertainty at a particular location and time. We study a new diagnostic tool based on fractions of threshold exceedance (FTE) which evaluates an additional important attribute: the ability of ensemble forecast fields to reproduce the spatial structure of observed fields. The utility of this diagnostic tool is demonstrated through simulations and an application to ensemble precipitation forecasts.