Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 27, issue 3
Articles | Volume 27, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-411-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 27, issue 3
Research article
 | 
31 Aug 2020
Research article |  | 31 Aug 2020

Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields

Josh Jacobson, William Kleiber, Michael Scheuerer, and Joseph Bellier

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Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
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Short summary
Most verification metrics for ensemble forecasts assess the representation of uncertainty at a particular location and time. We study a new diagnostic tool based on fractions of threshold exceedance (FTE) which evaluates an additional important attribute: the ability of ensemble forecast fields to reproduce the spatial structure of observed fields. The utility of this diagnostic tool is demonstrated through simulations and an application to ensemble precipitation forecasts.
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Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic...