Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 2
Articles | Volume 33, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 2
Research article
 | 
19 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 19 Jun 2026

Quantitative comparison of causal inference methods for climate tipping points

Niki Lohmann, David Strahl, Annika Högner, Willem Huiskamp, Matthias Boehm, and Nico Wunderling

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Short summary
Causal inference methods could be used to study the interaction of climate tipping elements, which may degrade abruptly due to climate change. We compare three of these methods to determine their reliability and apply two of them to the Arctic summer sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our results imply that a weaker AMOC would stabilize Arctic summer sea ice, and that a loss of Arctic summer sea ice would likely stabilize the AMOC in the short term.
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