Quantitative comparison of causal inference methods  for climate tipping points

Lohmann, Niki; Strahl, David; Högner, Annika; Huiskamp, Willem; Boehm, Matthias; Wunderling, Nico

doi:10.5194/npg-33-313-2026

Articles | Volume 33, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 33, issue 2

Research article

|

19 Jun 2026

Research article |

| 19 Jun 2026

Quantitative comparison of causal inference methods for climate tipping points

Niki Lohmann, David Strahl, Annika Högner, Willem Huiskamp, Matthias Boehm, and Nico Wunderling

Data sets

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

Arctic ocean sea ice reanalysis E.U. CMEMS https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00336

Arctic Sea and Sea Ice Surface Temperature Anomaly Time Series Based on Reprocessed Observations E.U. CMEMS https://doi.org/10.48670/mds-00323

Model code and software

Quantitative Comparison of Causal Inference Methods for Climate Tipping Points (Software) N. Lohmann and N. Wunderling https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17864596

Lkif Y. Rong https://github.com/YinengRong/LKIF

Ssgc L. Barnett https://github.com/lcbarnett/ssgc

Short summary

Causal inference methods could be used to study the interaction of climate tipping elements, which may degrade abruptly due to climate change. We compare three of these methods to determine their reliability and apply two of them to the Arctic summer sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our results imply that a weaker AMOC would stabilize Arctic summer sea ice, and that a loss of Arctic summer sea ice would likely stabilize the AMOC in the short term.