Articles | Volume 31, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-45-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-45-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 19 Jan 2024
| 19 Jan 2024
Sensitivity of the polar boundary layer to transient phenomena
Amandine Kaiser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Nikki Vercauteren
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany
Sebastian Krumscheid
Department of Mathematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Related authors
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Oliver A. Kern, Andreas Maier, and Nikki Vercauteren
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-306, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-306, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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We provide vegetation reconstructions during the Last Glacial period (60,000 to 20,000 years before present) using fossil pollen data and the REVEALS model. Understanding vegetation change in response to abrupt climate change is critical to enhance our understanding plant migration patterns and the demographic development and dispersal of anatomically modern humans into Europe. Our application PALVEG (https://oakern.shinyapps.io/PALVEG/), aims to make such data accessible to non-experts.
Tarek Beutler, Annette Rudolph, Daniel Goehring, and Nikki Vercauteren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-440, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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Precipitation nowcasting refers to the prediction of precipitation intensity in a local region and in a short timeframe up to 6 hours. The increasing possibilities to store and evaluate data combined with the advancements in the developments of artificial intelligence algorithms make it natural to use these methods to improve precipitation nowcasting. The positive effectiveness of finetuning and promising skill scores for a prediction time up to 100 minutes are shown.
Related subject area
Subject: Bifurcation, dynamical systems, chaos, phase transition, nonlinear waves, pattern formation | Topic: Climate, atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere | Techniques: Theory
Finite-size local dimension as a tool for extracting geometrical properties of attractors of dynamical systems
Negative differential resistance, instability, and critical transition in lightning leader
Solving a North-type energy balance model using boundary integral methods
Dynamically optimal models of atmospheric motion
Energy transfer from internal solitary waves to turbulence via high-frequency internal waves: seismic observations in the northern South China Sea
Review article: Interdisciplinary perspectives on climate sciences – highlighting past and current scientific achievements
Variational techniques for a one-dimensional energy balance model
Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns
Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics
Review article: Dynamical systems, algebraic topology and the climate sciences
Review article: Large fluctuations in non-equilibrium physics
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere
Effects of rotation and topography on internal solitary waves governed by the rotating Gardner equation
Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later
Anthropocene climate bifurcation
Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities in planetary atmospheres: energetics, equilibration and adjustment
Martin Bonte and Stéphane Vannitsem
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 139–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-139-2025, 2025
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In recent years, there have been more and more floods due to intense precipitation, such as the July 2021 event in Belgium. Predicting precipitation is a difficult task, even just for the next few hours. This study focuses on a tool that assesses whether a given situation is stable or not (i.e., whether it is likely to stay as it is or could evolve in an unpredictable manner).
Xueqiang Gou, Chao Xin, Liwen Xu, Ping Yuan, Yijun Zhang, and Mingli Chen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 107–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-107-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-107-2025, 2025
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We investigate the stability characteristics of lightning discharge channels through their differential resistance properties. Our analysis reveals that lightning channels exhibit bistable behavior, transitioning between low- and high-conductivity states depending on channel length and electric-field conditions. This work provides new insights into lightning channel dynamics and could contribute to improved lightning protection strategies.
Aksel Samuelsberg and Per Kristen Jakobsen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 23–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-23-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-23-2025, 2025
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We explored a simplified climate model based on Earth's energy budget. One advantage of such models is that they are easier to study mathematically. Using a mathematical technique known as boundary integral methods, we present a new way to solve these climate models. This method is particularly useful for modeling climates very different from Earth's current state, such as those on other planets or during past ice ages.
Alexander G. Voronovich
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 559–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-559-2024, 2024
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A derivation of discrete dynamical equations for the dry atmosphere without dissipative processes based on the least action principle is presented. For a given set of generally irregularly spaced grid points and a given mode of interpolation, through the minimization of action, the algorithm ensures maximal closeness of the evolution of the discrete system to the motion of the continuous atmosphere. The spatial resolution can be adjusted while executing calculations.
Linghan Meng, Haibin Song, Yongxian Guan, Shun Yang, Kun Zhang, and Mengli Liu
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 477–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-477-2024, 2024
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With seismic data, we observed high-frequency internal waves (HIWs) with amplitudes of around 10 m. A shoaling thermocline and gentle slope suggest that HIWs result from fission. Remote sensing data support this. Strong shear caused Ri below 0.25 over 20–30 km, indicating instability. HIWs enhance mixing, averaging 10-4 m2s-1, revealing a new energy cascade from shoaling waves to turbulence, and enhancing our understanding of energy dissipation and mixing in the northern South China Sea.
Vera Melinda Galfi, Tommaso Alberti, Lesley De Cruz, Christian L. E. Franzke, and Valerio Lembo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 185–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-185-2024, 2024
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In the online seminar series "Perspectives on climate sciences: from historical developments to future frontiers" (2020–2021), well-known and established scientists from several fields – including mathematics, physics, climate science and ecology – presented their perspectives on the evolution of climate science and on relevant scientific concepts. In this paper, we first give an overview of the content of the seminar series, and then we introduce the written contributions to this special issue.
Gianmarco Del Sarto, Jochen Bröcker, Franco Flandoli, and Tobias Kuna
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 137–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-137-2024, 2024
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We consider a one-dimensional model for the Earth's temperature. We give sufficient conditions to admit three asymptotic solutions. We connect the value function (minimum value of an objective function depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration) to the global mean temperature. Then, we show that the global mean temperature is the derivative of the value function and that it is non-decreasing with respect to GHG concentration.
Lilian Vanderveken, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 585–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-585-2023, 2023
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In semi-arid regions, hydric stress affects plant growth. In these conditions, vegetation patterns develop and effectively allow for vegetation to persist under low water input. The formation of patterns and the transition between patterns can be studied with small models taking the form of dynamical systems. Our study produces a full map of stable and unstable solutions in a canonical vegetation model and shows how they determine the transitions between different patterns.
Ulrike Feudel
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 481–502, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-481-2023, 2023
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Many systems in nature are characterized by the coexistence of different stable states for given environmental parameters and external forcing. Examples can be found in different fields of science, ranging from ecosystems to climate dynamics. Perturbations can lead to critical transitions (tipping) from one stable state to another. The study of these transitions requires the development of new methodological approaches that allow for modeling, analyzing and predicting them.
Michael Ghil and Denisse Sciamarella
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 399–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-399-2023, 2023
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The problem of climate change is that of a chaotic system subject to time-dependent forcing, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases and natural volcanism. To solve this problem, we describe the mathematics of dynamical systems with explicit time dependence and those of studying their behavior through topological methods. Here, we show how they are being applied to climate change and its predictability.
Giovanni Jona-Lasinio
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 253–262, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-253-2023, 2023
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Non-equilibrium is dominant in geophysical and climate phenomena. Most of the processes that characterize energy flow occur far from equilibrium. These range from very large systems, such as weather patterns or ocean currents that remain far from equilibrium, owing to an influx of energy, to biological structures. In the last decades, progress in non-equilibrium physics has come from the study of very rare fluctuations, and this paper provides an introduction to these theoretical developments.
Kolja L. Kypke, William F. Langford, Gregory M. Lewis, and Allan R. Willms
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 219–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022, 2022
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Climate change is causing rapid temperature increases in the polar regions. A fundamental question is whether these temperature increases are reversible. If we control carbon dioxide emissions, will the temperatures revert or will we have passed a tipping point beyond which return to the present state is impossible? Our mathematical model of the Arctic climate indicates that under present emissions the Arctic climate will change irreversibly to a warm climate before the end of the century.
Karl R. Helfrich and Lev Ostrovsky
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 207–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-207-2022, 2022
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Internal solitons are an important class of nonlinear waves commonly observed in coastal oceans. Their propagation is affected by the Earth's rotation and the variation in the water depth. We consider an interplay of these factors using the corresponding extension of the Gardner equation. This model allows a limiting soliton amplitude and the corresponding increase in wavelength, making the effects of rotation and topography on a shoaling wave especially significant.
Michael Ghil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020, 2020
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The scientific questions posed by the climate sciences are central to socioeconomic concerns today. This paper revisits several crucial questions, starting with
What can we predict beyond 1 week, for how long, and by what methods?, and ending with
Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century?We review the progress in dealing with the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the Earth system and emphasize major strides in coupled climate–economy modeling.
Kolja Leon Kypke, William Finlay Langford, and Allan Richard Willms
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 391–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-391-2020, 2020
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The climate of Earth is governed by nonlinear processes of geophysics. This paper presents energy balance models (EBMs) embracing these nonlinear processes which lead to positive feedback, amplifying the effects of anthropogenic forcing and leading to bifurcations. We define bifurcation as a change in the topological equivalence class of the system. We initiate a bifurcation analysis of EBMs of Anthropocene climate, which shows that a catastrophic climate change may occur in the next century.
Peter Read, Daniel Kennedy, Neil Lewis, Hélène Scolan, Fachreddin Tabataba-Vakili, Yixiong Wang, Susie Wright, and Roland Young
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 147–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-147-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-147-2020, 2020
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Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities are well known as the processes responsible for the production of the most important energy-containing eddies in the atmospheres and oceans of Earth and other planets. Linear and nonlinear instability theories provide insights into when such instabilities may occur, grow to a large amplitude and saturate, with examples from the laboratory, simplified numerical models and planetary atmospheres. We conclude with a number of open issues for future research.
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Short summary
Current numerical weather prediction models encounter challenges in accurately representing regimes in the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer (SBL) and the transitions between them. Stochastic modeling approaches are a promising framework to analyze when transient small-scale phenomena can trigger regime transitions. Therefore, we conducted a sensitivity analysis of the SBL to transient phenomena by augmenting a surface energy balance model with meaningful randomizations.
Current numerical weather prediction models encounter challenges in accurately representing...
