Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-473-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-473-2020
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2020

Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst

Reinhold Hess

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Reinhold Hess on behalf of the Authors (22 May 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Jun 2020) by Stephan Hemri
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (10 Jul 2020) by Stephan Hemri
AR by Reinhold Hess on behalf of the Authors (14 Jul 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (20 Jul 2020) by Stephan Hemri
AR by Reinhold Hess on behalf of the Authors (21 Jul 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (11 Aug 2020) by Stephan Hemri
AR by Reinhold Hess on behalf of the Authors (13 Aug 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (19 Aug 2020) by Stephan Hemri
AR by Reinhold Hess on behalf of the Authors (24 Aug 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
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Short summary
Forecasts of ensemble systems are statistically aligned to synoptic observations at DWD in order to provide support for warning decision management. Motivation and design consequences for extreme and rare meteorological events are presented. Especially for probabilities of severe wind gusts global logistic parameterisations are developed that generate robust statistical forecasts for extreme events, while local characteristics are preserved.