Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-473-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-473-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2020

Statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for severe weather at Deutscher Wetterdienst

Reinhold Hess

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Short summary
Forecasts of ensemble systems are statistically aligned to synoptic observations at DWD in order to provide support for warning decision management. Motivation and design consequences for extreme and rare meteorological events are presented. Especially for probabilities of severe wind gusts global logistic parameterisations are developed that generate robust statistical forecasts for extreme events, while local characteristics are preserved.
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Advances in post-processing and blending of deterministic...