Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-473-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-473-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Research article
 | 
04 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 04 Sep 2026

Ensemble Kalman-guided model predictive path integral control for spatially localized suppression of extremes in chaotic geophysical flows

Haru Kuroki, Kazumune Hashimoto, Yuki Uehara, Yohei Sawada, Duc Le, and Masashi Minamide

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Short summary
We developed a method to plan tiny, local nudges that reduce spikes in weather-like simulations. It was motivated by the lack of reliable ways to design small interventions in unpredictable systems. The method uses many parallel forecasts to suggest where a nudge matters, then tests and refines it with repeated full-model simulations. In two models, it reduced extremes and peak regional wind speeds with similar or smaller input, enabling safer study of intervention ideas.
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