Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 3
Research article
 | 
06 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 06 Aug 2026

A simple dynamical system for representing climate tipping points with hysteresis

Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Joseph Clarke

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Short summary
The risk of climate change triggering tipping points is a concern. While Earth System Models (ESMs) predict these points, their timing often varies. Equations of nonlinear dynamical systems can model tipping, hysteresis, and inertia, enabling comparison with ESMs. We propose a method to map tipping timing estimates onto a dynamical system that simulates a full hysteresis loop. We focus on solutions to the equation under overshoot forcing in global temperature and different inertia levels.
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