Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026
Research article
 | 
24 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 24 Mar 2026

Spatiotemporal variation in rainfall predictability in Serbia under a changing climate

Tatijana Stosic, Ivana Tošić, Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva, Vladimir Djurdjević, and Borko Stosic

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Cited articles

Agarwal, A., Maheswaran, R., Sehgal, V., Khosa, R., Sivakumar, B., and Bernhofer, C.: Hydrologic regionalization using wavelet-based multiscale entropy method, J. Hydrol., 538, 22–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.023, 2016. 
Almeida-Ñauñay, A. F., Benito, R. M., Quemada, M., Losada, J. C., and Tarquis, A. M.: Complexity of the Vegetation-Climate System Through Data Analysis, in: Complex Networks & Their Applications IX: Volume 1, Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2020, Springer, Cham, 609–619, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65347-7_50, 2021. 
Amiri, M. and Gocić, M.: Identification of spatial and temporal variability of seasonality in precipitation regimes over Serbia, Environ. Earth Sci., 84, 159, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12171-x, 2025a. 
Amiri, M. and Gocić, M.: Entropy analysis of precipitation variability in Serbia, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 156, 454, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05708-4, 2025b. 
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Short summary
In this work we address the change in rainfall predictability in Serbia due to climate change, using a novel entropy-based method that highlights both small and large fluctuations. The study is performed on data from 14 stations from 1961–2020. While rainfall average remains rather stable between two subperiods, the predictability of large and small fluctuations has changed, suggesting that climate change has affected rainfall dynamics in ways not observable by standard statistical methods.
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