Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Spatiotemporal variation in rainfall predictability in Serbia under a changing climate
Tatijana Stosic
Department of Statistics and Informatics, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, 52171-900 Recife-PE, Brazil
Faculty of Physics, Institute for Meteorology, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva
Department of Statistics and Informatics, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, 52171-900 Recife-PE, Brazil
Vladimir Djurdjević
Faculty of Physics, Institute for Meteorology, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Borko Stosic
Department of Statistics and Informatics, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, 52171-900 Recife-PE, Brazil
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Short summary
In this work we address the change in rainfall predictability in Serbia due to climate change, using a novel entropy-based method that highlights both small and large fluctuations. The study is performed on data from 14 stations from 1961–2020. While rainfall average remains rather stable between two subperiods, the predictability of large and small fluctuations has changed, suggesting that climate change has affected rainfall dynamics in ways not observable by standard statistical methods.
In this work we address the change in rainfall predictability in Serbia due to climate change,...