Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-157-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 33, issue 1
Research article
 | 
24 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 24 Mar 2026

Spatiotemporal variation in rainfall predictability in Serbia under a changing climate

Tatijana Stosic, Ivana Tošić, Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva, Vladimir Djurdjević, and Borko Stosic

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Short summary
In this work we address the change in rainfall predictability in Serbia due to climate change, using a novel entropy-based method that highlights both small and large fluctuations. The study is performed on data from 14 stations from 1961–2020. While rainfall average remains rather stable between two subperiods, the predictability of large and small fluctuations has changed, suggesting that climate change has affected rainfall dynamics in ways not observable by standard statistical methods.
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Emerging predictability, prediction, and early-warning approaches...