Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-383-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-383-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
Research article
 | 
20 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 20 Oct 2025

Assessing AMOC stability using a Bayesian nested time-dependent autoregressive model

Luc Hallali, Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, and Christian L. E. Franzke

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Short summary
We present an alternative statistical methodology to detect whether the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system is approaching a tipping point. Our approach separates natural variability from real early warning signals of tipping, reducing false alarms. When applied to a proxy of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation strength, we find significant signs that the system is undergoing destabilization, suggesting that it may be approaching a tipping point, which could have major impacts on global climate patterns.
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Emerging predictability, prediction, and early-warning approaches...