Articles | Volume 32, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-383-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-383-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 20 Oct 2025
| 20 Oct 2025
Assessing AMOC stability using a Bayesian nested time-dependent autoregressive model
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
Christian L. E. Franzke
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea
Department of Integrated Climate System Science, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
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Short summary
We present an alternative statistical methodology to detect whether the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system is approaching a tipping point. Our approach separates natural variability from real early warning signals of tipping, reducing false alarms. When applied to a proxy of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation strength, we find significant signs that the system is undergoing destabilization, suggesting that it may be approaching a tipping point, which could have major impacts on global climate patterns.
We present an alternative statistical methodology to detect whether the Atlantic Ocean’s...
