Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 31, issue 1
Articles | Volume 31, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-165-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-165-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 31, issue 1
Research article
 | 
28 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 28 Mar 2024

The sampling method for optimal precursors of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events

Bin Shi and Junjie Ma

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Latest update: 16 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Different from traditional deterministic optimization algorithms, we implement the sampling method to compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) in the realistic and predictive coupled ocean–atmosphere model, which reduces the first-order information to the zeroth-order one, avoiding the high-cost computation of the gradient. The numerical performance highlights the importance of stochastic optimization algorithms to compute CNOPs and capture initial optimal precursors.
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