Articles | Volume 30, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-571-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-571-2023
Research article
 | 
08 Dec 2023
Research article |  | 08 Dec 2023

Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of Volcán de Colima energy emissions (Mexico, years 2013–2015) based on a fractal reconstruction theorem

Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Xavier Lana, and Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza

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Cited articles

Arámbula-Mendoza, R., Reyes-Dávila, G., Vargas-Bracamontes, D. M., González-Amezcua M., Navarro-Ochoa, C., Martínez-Fierros, A., and Ramírez-Vázquez, A. A.: Seismic monitoring of effusive-explosive activity and large lava dome collapses during 2013–2015 at Volcán de Colima, Mexico, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 351, 75–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.12.017, 2018. 
Arámbula-Mendoza, R., Reyes-Dávila, G., Domínguez-Reyes, T., Vargas-Bracamontes, D., González-Amezcua, M., Martínez-Fierros, A., and Ramírez-Vázquez, A: Seismic Activity Associated with Volcán de Colima, in: Volcán de Colima, portrait of a Persistently Hazardous Volcan, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25911-1_1, 2019. 
Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M.: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, CA, Holden-Day, 575 pp., https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385938-9.00028-6, 1976. 
Burgueño, A., Lana, X., Serra, C., and Martínez, M. D.: Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain), Phys. Lett. A, 378, 874–885, 2014. 
Clarke, A. B., Ongaro, T. E., and Belousov, A.: Vulcanian eruptions, in: The encyclopedia of volcanoes, 28, 505–518, Academic Press, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385938-9.00028-6, 2015. 
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Effusive–explosive volcanic energy emissions are a complex and dynamic physical phenomenon. The complexity of this process for the Volcán de Colima along the years 2013–2015 is analysed by means of the reconstruction theorem being determined by the persistence, complexity and “loss of memory” of the physical mechanism. The results suggest that appropriate forecasting algorithms could be applied to determine forthcoming high-energy emissions.