Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 467–480, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 467–480, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021
Research article
16 Sep 2021
Research article | 16 Sep 2021

Calibrated ensemble forecasts of the height of new snow using quantile regression forests and ensemble model output statistics

Guillaume Evin et al.

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Short summary
Forecasting the height of new snow is essential for avalanche hazard surveys, road and ski resort management, tourism attractiveness, etc. Météo-France operates a probabilistic forecasting system using a numerical weather prediction system and a snowpack model. It provides better forecasts than direct diagnostics but exhibits significant biases. Post-processing methods can be applied to provide automatic forecasting products from this system.