Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
Research article
 | 
16 Sep 2021
Research article |  | 16 Sep 2021

Calibrated ensemble forecasts of the height of new snow using quantile regression forests and ensemble model output statistics

Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Lafaysse, Maxime Taillardat, and Michaël Zamo

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Short summary
Forecasting the height of new snow is essential for avalanche hazard surveys, road and ski resort management, tourism attractiveness, etc. Météo-France operates a probabilistic forecasting system using a numerical weather prediction system and a snowpack model. It provides better forecasts than direct diagnostics but exhibits significant biases. Post-processing methods can be applied to provide automatic forecasting products from this system.
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