Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed underthe Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Improving the potential accuracy and usability of EURO-CORDEX estimates of future rainfall climate using frequentist model averaging
- Final revised paper (published on 29 Jul 2021)
- Preprint (discussion started on 19 Mar 2021)
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor |
: Report abuse
RC1: 'Comment on npg-2021-12', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Apr 2021
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Stephen Jewson, 14 Apr 2021
- AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Stephen Jewson, 26 May 2021
RC2: 'Comment on npg-2021-12', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Apr 2021
- AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Stephen Jewson, 26 May 2021
CC1: 'Comment on npg-2021-12', Rasmus Benestad, 04 May 2021
- AC6: 'Reply on CC1', Stephen Jewson, 26 May 2021
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Stephen Jewson on behalf of the Authors (26 May 2021)  Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (18 Jun 2021) by Valerio Lucarini
The paper presents two methods to adjust ensemble mean of variables projected by climate models (CM) and compares their performances against two other adjusting approaches (i.e., conventional Akaike model averaging and statistical testing) and unadjusted mean, considering change along different future time frames, seasons, precipitation variables and RCP scenarios over the whole Europe.
The two proposed methods (MMA) have a common derivation based on minimisation of the predictive mean squared error.
The paper discusses the relative advantages of all the considered methods and shows that the application of MMA is particularly advantageous when the uncertainly of a given change is high due to small predicted changes and large spread among the CM signals (in such cases rejection of a null hypothesis of no change is usually the outcome of statistical tests).
As a general comment it is my opinion that the paper is timely, and results are of interest for NPG readers. However, the readability of the paper is not fluent and can be improved by a careful proofreading, since there are many parts of the manuscript that I needed to read and read again to understand the underlying message.
Apart from these aspects I have only some minor issues, that are listed below.