Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 329–346, 2021
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 329–346, 2021

Research article 29 Jul 2021

Research article | 29 Jul 2021

Improving the potential accuracy and usability of EURO-CORDEX estimates of future rainfall climate using frequentist model averaging

Stephen Jewson et al.

Data sets

EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research ( D. Jacob, J. Petersen, B. Eggert, A. Alias, O. B. Christensen, L. M. Bouwer, A. Braun, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Georgievski, E. Georgopoulou, A. Gobiet, L. Menut, G. Nikulin, A. Haensler, N. Hempelmann, C. Jones, K. Keuler, S. Kovats, N. Kröner, S. Kotlarski, A. Kriegsmann, E. Martin, E. van Meijgaard, C. Moseley, S. Pfeifer, S. Preuschmann, C. Radermacher, K. Radtke, D. Rechid, M. Rounsevell, P. Samuelsson, S. Somot, J.-F. Soussana, C. Teichmann, R. Valentini, R. Vautard, B. Weber, and P. Yiou

Short summary
Climate model simulations are uncertain. In some cases this makes it difficult to know how to use them. Significance testing is often used to deal with this issue but has various shortcomings. We describe two alternative ways to manage uncertainty in climate model simulations that avoid these shortcomings. We test them on simulations of future rainfall over Europe and show they produce more accurate projections than either using unadjusted climate model output or statistical testing.