Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
NPG
Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-329-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-329-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 28, issue 3
Research article
 | 
29 Jul 2021
Research article |  | 29 Jul 2021

Improving the potential accuracy and usability of EURO-CORDEX estimates of future rainfall climate using frequentist model averaging

Stephen Jewson, Giuliana Barbato, Paola Mercogliano, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Maximiliano Sassi

Data sets

EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research (https://euro-cordex.net) D. Jacob, J. Petersen, B. Eggert, A. Alias, O. B. Christensen, L. M. Bouwer, A. Braun, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Georgievski, E. Georgopoulou, A. Gobiet, L. Menut, G. Nikulin, A. Haensler, N. Hempelmann, C. Jones, K. Keuler, S. Kovats, N. Kröner, S. Kotlarski, A. Kriegsmann, E. Martin, E. van Meijgaard, C. Moseley, S. Pfeifer, S. Preuschmann, C. Radermacher, K. Radtke, D. Rechid, M. Rounsevell, P. Samuelsson, S. Somot, J.-F. Soussana, C. Teichmann, R. Valentini, R. Vautard, B. Weber, and P. Yiou https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

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Short summary
Climate model simulations are uncertain. In some cases this makes it difficult to know how to use them. Significance testing is often used to deal with this issue but has various shortcomings. We describe two alternative ways to manage uncertainty in climate model simulations that avoid these shortcomings. We test them on simulations of future rainfall over Europe and show they produce more accurate projections than either using unadjusted climate model output or statistical testing.
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