Articles | Volume 27, issue 3
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 391–409, 2020
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 391–409, 2020

Research article 08 Jul 2020

Research article | 08 Jul 2020

Anthropocene climate bifurcation

Kolja Leon Kypke et al.

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Subject: Bifurcation, dynamical systems, chaos, phase transition, nonlinear waves, pattern formation | Topic: Climate, atmosphere, ocean, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere | Techniques: Theory
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Cited articles

Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, 2012. a
Barron, E. J., Thompson, S. L., and Schneider, S. H.: An ice-free Cretaceous? Results from climate model simulations, Science, 212, 10–13, 1981. 
Bathiany, S., Dijkstra, H., Crucifix, M., Dakos, V., Brovkin, V., Williamson, M. S., Lenton, T. M., and Scheffer, M.: Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change, Dyn. Stat. Clim. Syst., 1, 1–31,, 2016. a
Short summary
The climate of Earth is governed by nonlinear processes of geophysics. This paper presents energy balance models (EBMs) embracing these nonlinear processes which lead to positive feedback, amplifying the effects of anthropogenic forcing and leading to bifurcations. We define bifurcation as a change in the topological equivalence class of the system. We initiate a bifurcation analysis of EBMs of Anthropocene climate, which shows that a catastrophic climate change may occur in the next century.